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[Tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>]

Most nations in the world are not our "allies", and won't be.  It's 
still "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"

Slowly, excruciatingly slowly, as THEIR ox is gored, we acquire allies 
in "OUR " war against terrorisn---Israel among the first, now Russia, 
perhaps Egypt---IF Egypt wins its internal war against organized 
religion thugs.   Pakistan is our somewhat dubious anti-terrorist "ally" 
only so  long as Musharraf stays alive, and the Pakistan terrorism in 
Kashmir is held somewhat in restraint.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt9oct09,1,7369171.story?coll=la-home-headlines



        
        
        
        


NEWS ANALYSIS
Bombing Attacks Represent a Turning Point for Egypt

                        
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October 8, 2004
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Bombing Attacks Represent a Turning Point for Egypt 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt9oct09,1,7369171.story?coll=la-headlines-world>

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more > <http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/>

                        

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By Megan K. Stack, Times Staff Writer

CAIRO -- The string of late-night explosions in the desert resorts of 
the Sinai Peninsula was just as much a direct, devastating blow to Egypt 
as it was a deadly swipe at Israeli civilians.

The unidentified bombers, who killed at least three dozen mostly Israeli 
tourists Thursday night, managed to hit the key U.S. ally in two of its 
most vulnerable spots: its uncomfortable alliance with Israel and the 
tourist industry central to Egypt's sagging economy.


        

        
        
        

        

The attacks, believed to be the work of Islamic militants, also raised 
unwelcome echoes of the epic and historically violent struggle between 
the secular state and its popular Islamist groups, particularly the 
Muslim Brotherhood.

The bombings instantly propelled Egypt, which had managed to avoid the 
recent upheavals of its neighbors, into a post-Sept. 11 reality of 
spiraling regional bloodshed and instability. The attacks, analysts say, 
are likely to be remembered as a turning point in the emerging struggle 
between U.S. allies such as Egypt and a new generation of armed insurgents.

"This is the most important attack we've seen -- not only for Egypt but 
for the whole region -- from the point of view of the war on terror and 
the stability of the region," said Diaa Rashwan, an expert on militant 
Islam at Egypt's Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. 
"Egypt is now damaged on many levels. The message to the Egyptian 
government is, 'You spoke all the time about security, but you are not 
secure and you cannot speak about your stability.' "

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Morocco all have suffered recent devastating 
strikes by Islamic militants, direct challenges to governments that have 
forged ties with the United States. The attacks in Egypt, the most 
populous Arab country, cut even deeper, wounding the psychological 
epicenter of the Arab world.

The strikes threaten to push Egypt's crucial tourist trade into 
recession and dash the country's reputation as a tightly controlled, 
almost omniscient, police state.

Hopes of liberalization, too, were shaken: Analysts predicted that 
President Hosni Mubarak's government would use the attacks to justify 
the extension of long-standing martial law. Ruling party officials have 
repeatedly held out the threat of terrorism to defend repressive laws 
and autocratic rule. The bombings could provide a new cover to delay 
constitutional change and clamp down on fledgling opposition parties and 
reform movements.

The attacks are also expected to reverberate in the foreign policy 
arena. Perhaps most significant, analysts say, they undermine Egyptian 
offers to control Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip in the event 
of an Israeli withdrawal. The loss of credibility in that conflict is a 
cause for concern in Egypt, which collects about $2 billion a year in 
U.S. aid and is expected to help the Americans nudge the two sides 
toward peace talks.

"How can you protect the Israelis from Gaza when the Israelis were 
victims on Egyptian soil?" Rashwan said. "The Egyptians can't speak of 
any role in Gaza when they can't even protect themselves."

As Egyptian officials often pointed out, seven tranquil years had passed 
since tourists last came under attack in Egypt -- and the sun-washed 
desert beaches of the Sinai seemed the least vulnerable target in the 
country. Squads of Egyptian and Israeli intelligence agents keep a close 
eye on Westerners, Israelis and wealthy Egyptians who come to sun, 
snorkel and socialize. Mubarak has vacationed there; so has British 
Prime Minister Tony Blair.

In the first hours after the bombings, Israel was quick to blame the Al 
Qaeda terrorist network, noting the sophistication and scale of the 
attacks. Egyptian officials were slower to point fingers, but they and 
analysts agreed that the neatly coordinated blasts bore none of the 
familiar, cruder hallmarks of the home-grown Islamic radicals who rose 
up against Mubarak's regime in the 1990s.

These days, the government's old foes are mostly defunct. The Muslim 
Brotherhood has renounced violence in hopes of gaining a role in the 
political process, and most of the old Egyptian Islamic Jihad has been 
crushed, its remnant members languishing in jail.

"This is a new style of attacks which is alien to the groups in Egypt," 
said Fouad Allam, the former head of Egypt's state security police. "I'm 
not ruling out a possible involvement by local terrorist groups, but the 
attacks must have been motivated by a foreign force."

Egyptians also disputed the notion of Palestinian militants waging 
attacks on Egyptian soil.

Egyptian intelligence officials maintain close ties to armed Palestinian 
factions. Hamas, the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Islamic Jihad and other 
militant groups were often invited to Cairo during the worst moments of 
the intifada, or uprising against Israel, for talks aimed at brokering a 
cease-fire.

In recent weeks, Palestinian militants returned to Cairo to discuss 
security arrangements in the event of an Israeli pullout from Gaza. Even 
Khalid Mashaal, the elusive Hamas leader whose permitted residence in 
Damascus, Syria, has drawn the wrath of the United States and Israel, 
turned up in the Egyptian capital last month.

"It's difficult to imagine the Palestinian organizations could be behind 
it," said Montasser Zayat, an Egyptian lawyer who represents accused 
Islamic militants. "Egypt has been very supportive of them, providing 
political support after the Palestinians lost Damascus as an influential 
player."

For a wary Egypt, whether the bombings were plotted by Palestinians, 
foreign Al Qaeda fighters or one of the many smaller, freelance jihad 
networks cropping up in the region, the bottom line is the same: The 
Palestinian intifada and the war in Iraq have led to a more violent, 
radicalized region, and now that violence has made its way to Egypt.

"This new kind of attack in Egypt means that the war against terror is 
the wrong way," government spokesman Taha Abdel Aleem said. "That war 
won't stop such terrorist attacks, it can't eliminate these 
organizations and networks. This will continue as long as these hot 
issues and extremism are creating terrorists."

The attacks were the latest against Jewish targets in Islamic nations. 
Previous attacks, linked to Al Qaeda, were aimed at synagogues and 
Jewish institutions in Tunisia, Morocco and Turkey.

By Friday night, Egyptians were bracing for the government's response to 
the bombings. In the past, Egypt has used crushing force -- massive 
crackdowns, sweeping arrests and interrogations. But some analysts 
doubted that officials would risk inflaming the street, especially 
because news reports of the bombings served as a fresh reminder of the 
seldom discussed and deeply unpopular ties with Israel.

"The Egyptian security agencies are keen on saving face," Zayat said. 
Still, he added, "the authorities understand how tense the situation is, 
and the level of frustration among Egyptians."

Essam Erian, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, was more blunt. "I 
don't expect anything inside Egypt," he said. "All the files of violence 
are closed now, and if they open them up, it will be very dangerous for 
them. No Egyptian group has any role in this activity, from strategy to 
logistics."

The years since Sept. 11 have been uneasy ones for Egypt as Mubarak has 
clung to his precarious and widely unpopular course as a would-be Arab 
peacemaker. To the dismay of many Egyptians, the government continued to 
mediate with Israel and stand beside the U.S. in the face of deep 
anti-American anger on the streets of Cairo.

Caught between the increasing anger of its people and outside pressure 
to continue as peacemaker, the government has sometimes navigated the 
tricky diplomatic course by creating a domestic image that differs from 
its international reputation.

Egypt's business and diplomatic dealings with Israel -- including the 
thousands of tourists who visit the Sinai -- are generally not mentioned 
in the state-run media, which blame the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for 
the political stagnation in the Arab world and paint Egypt as benefactor 
to the Palestinians instead of ally -- albeit a chilly one -- to Israel.

This brand of tension has laced Egyptian politics since 1979, when 
President Anwar Sadat enraged Islamic militants by signing a peace 
treaty with Israel. Two years later, members of the Muslim Brotherhood 
assassinated him. Mubarak has been president since.

For many Egyptians who fought against Israel or grew up in wartime, any 
government cooperation with the Jewish state is baffling and unacceptable.

"There is a terrorist reaction to it," said Aleem, the government 
spokesman. "Everywhere there are those pushing the government to end the 
peace treaty and cancel the peace."