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* Middle East *


*The costs of the failed Iraqi transition *

(Posted with permission from Foreign Policy in Focus <http://www.fpif.org>)

*Key findings*
"A Failed Transition" is the most comprehensive accounting of the 
mounting costs of the Iraq war on the United States, Iraq and the world. 
Among its major findings are stark figures about the escalation of costs 
in these most recent three months of "transition" to Iraqi rule, a 
period that the Bush administration claimed would be characterized by 
falling human and economic costs.

/*1. US military casualties have been highest during the "transition":*/ 
US military casualties (wounded and killed) stand at a monthly average 
of 747 since the so-called "transition" to Iraqi rule on June 29. This 
contrasts with a monthly average of 482 US military casualties during 
the invasion (March 20-May 1, 2003) and a monthly average of 415 during 
the occupation (May 2, 2003-June 28, 2004).

/*2. Non-Iraqi contractor deaths have also been highest during the 
"transition": */There has also been a huge increase in the average 
monthly deaths of US and other non-Iraqi contractors since the 
"transition". On average, 17.5 contractors have died each month since 
the "transition", versus 7.6 contractor deaths per month during the 
previous 14 months of occupation.

/*3. Estimated strength of Iraqi resistance skyrockets: */Because the US 
military occupation remains in place, the "transition" has failed to win 
Iraqi support or diminish Iraqi resistance to the occupation. According 
to Pentagon estimates, the number of Iraqi resistance fighters has 
quadrupled between November of 2003 and early September 2004, from 5,000 
to 20,000. The deputy commander of coalition forces in Iraq, British 
Major-General Andrew Graham, indicated to Time magazine in early 
September that he thinks the 20,000 estimate is too low; he estimates 
Iraqi resistance strength at 40,000-50,000. This rise is even starker 
when juxtaposed to Brookings Institution estimates that an additional 
24,000 Iraqi resistance fighters have been detained or killed between 
May 2003 and August 2004.

/*4. US-led coalition shrinks further after "transition": */The number 
of countries identified as members of the coalition backing the US-led 
war started with 30 on March 18, 2003, then grew in the early months of 
the war. Since then, eight countries have withdrawn their troops and 
Costa Rica has demanded to be taken off the coalition list. At the war's 
start, coalition countries represented 19.1% of the world's population; 
today, the remaining countries with forces in Iraq represent only 13.6% 
of the world's population.

HIGHLIGHTS
*I. Costs to the United States*
/*A. Human costs to the US and allies*/
/US military deaths: /Between the start of war on March 19, 2003 and 
September 22, 2004, 1,175 coalition forces were killed, including 1,040 
US military. Of the total, 925 were killed after President George W Bush 
declared the end of combat operations on May 1, 2003. Over 7,413 US 
troops have been wounded since the war began, 6,953 (94%) since May 1, 
2003.

/Contractor deaths:/ As of September 22, there has been an estimated 154 
civilian contractors, missionaries and civilian worker deaths since May 
1, 2004. Of these, 52 have been identified as Americans.

/Journalist deaths:/ Forty-four international media workers have been 
killed in Iraq as of September 22, including 33 since Bush declared the 
end of combat operations. Eight of the dead worked for US companies.

/*B. Security costs */
/Terrorist recruitment and action:/ According to the London-based 
International Institute for Strategic Studies, al-Qaeda's membership is 
now at 18,000, with 1,000 active in Iraq. The State Department's 2003 
"Patterns of Global Terrorism" documented 625 deaths and 3,646 injuries 
due to terrorist attacks in 2003. The report acknowledged that 
"significant incidents" increased from 60% of total attacks in 2002 to 
84% in 2003.

/Low US credibility: /Polls reveal that the war has damaged the US 
government's standing and credibility in the world. Surveys in eight 
European and Arab countries demonstrated broad public agreement that the 
war has hurt, rather than helped, the "war on terrorism". At home, 52% 
of Americans polled by the Annenberg Election Survey disapprove of 
Bush's handling of Iraq.

/Military mistakes:/ A number of former military officials have 
criticized the war, including retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, who 
has charged that by manufacturing a false rationale for war, abandoning 
traditional allies, propping up and trusting Iraqi exiles, and failing 
to plan for post-war Iraq, the Bush administration made the US less secure.

/Low troop morale and lack of equipment:/ A March 2004 army survey found 
52% of soldiers reporting low morale, and three-fourths reporting they 
were poorly led by their officers. Lack of equipment has been an ongoing 
problem. The army did not fully equip soldiers with bullet-proof vests 
until June 2004, forcing many families to purchase them out of their own 
pockets.

/Loss of first responders:/ National Guard troops make up almost 
one-third of the US Army troops now in Iraq. Their deployment puts a 
particularly heavy burden on their home communities because many are 
"first responders", including police, firefighters and emergency medical 
personnel. For example, 44% of the country's police forces have lost 
officers to Iraq. In some states, the absence of so many Guard troops 
has raised concerns about the ability to handle natural disasters.

/Use of private contractors:/ An estimated 20,000 private contractors 
are carrying out work in Iraq traditionally done by the military, 
despite the fact that they often lack sufficient training and are not 
accountable to the same guidelines and reviews as military personnel.

/*C. Economic costs*/
/The bill so far:/ Congress has approved $151.1 billion for Iraq. 
Congressional leaders anticipate an additional supplemental 
appropriation of $60 billion after the election in November.

/Long-term impact on US economy:/ Economist Doug Henwood has estimated 
that the war bill will add up to an average of at least $3,415 for every 
US household. Another economist, James Galbraith of the University of 
Texas, predicts that while war spending may boost the economy initially, 
over the long term it is likely to bring a decade of economic troubles, 
including an expanded trade deficit and high inflation.

/Oil prices:/ US crude oil prices spiked at $48 per barrel on August 19, 
the highest level since 1983, a development that most analysts attribute 
at least in part to the deteriorating situation in Iraq. According to a 
mid-May CBS survey, 85% of Americans said they had been affected 
measurably by higher gas prices. According to one estimate, if crude oil 
prices stay around $40 a barrel for a year, US gross domestic product 
will decline by more than $50 billion.

/Economic impact on military families:/ Since the beginning of the wars 
in Iraq and Afghanistan, 364,000 reserve troops and National Guard 
soldiers have been called for military service, serving tours of duty 
that often last 20 months. Studies show that between 30% and 40% of 
reservists and National Guard members earn a lower salary when they 
leave civilian employment for military deployment. Army Emergency Relief 
has reported that requests from military families for food stamps and 
subsidized meals increased "several hundred percent" between 2002 and 2003.

/*D. Social costs */
/US budget and social programs: /The Bush administration's combination 
of massive spending on the war and tax cuts for the wealthy means less 
money for social spending. The $151.1 billion expenditure for the war 
through this year could have paid for: close to 23 million housing 
vouchers; health care for over 27 million uninsured Americans; salaries 
for nearly 3 million elementary school teachers; 678,200 new fire 
engines; over 20 million Head Start slots for children; or health care 
coverage for 82 million children. A leaked memo from the White House to 
domestic agencies outlines major cuts following the election, including 
funding for education, Head Start, home ownership, job training, medical 
research and homeland security.

/Social costs to the military:/ To meet troop requirements in Iraq, the 
army has extended the tours of duty for soldiers. These extensions have 
been particularly difficult for reservists, many of whom never expected 
to face such long separations from their jobs and families. According to 
military policy, reservists are not supposed to be on assignment for 
more than 12 months every five-six years. To date, the average tour of 
duty for all soldiers in Iraq has been 320 days. A recent army survey 
revealed that more than half of soldiers said they would not re-enlist.

/Costs to veteran health care:/ About 64% of the more than 7,000 US 
soldiers injured in Iraq received wounds that prevented them from 
returning to duty. One trend has been an increase in amputees, the 
result of improved body armor that protects vital organs but not 
extremities. As in previous wars, many soldiers are likely to have 
received ailments that will not be detected for years to come. The 
Veterans Administration healthcare system is not prepared for the 
swelling number of claims. In May, the House of Representatives approved 
funding for FY 2005 that is $2.6 billion less than needed, according to 
veterans' groups.

/Mental health costs: /The New England Journal of Medicine reported in 
July that one in six soldiers returning from war in Iraq showed signs of 
post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression, or severe anxiety. 
Only 23% to 40% of respondents in the study who showed signs of a mental 
disorder had sought mental health care.

*II. Costs to Iraq*
/*A. Human costs*/
/Iraqi deaths and injuries: /As of September 22, between 12,800 and 
14,843 Iraqi civilians had been killed as a result of the US invasion 
and ensuing occupation, while an estimated 40,000 Iraqis injured. During 
"major combat" operations, between 4,895 and 6,370 Iraqi soldiers and 
insurgents were killed.

/Effects of depleted uranium (DU): /The health impacts of the use of 
depleted uranium weaponry in Iraq are yet to be known. The Pentagon 
estimates that US and British forces used 1,100 to 2,200 tons of 
weaponry made from the toxic and radioactive metal during the March 2003 
bombing campaign. Many scientists blame the far smaller amount of DU 
weapons used in the Persian Gulf War of 1991 for illnesses among US 
soldiers, as well as a sevenfold increase in child birth defects in 
Basra in southern Iraq.

*B. Security costs *
/Rise in crime:/ Murder, rape and kidnapping have skyrocketed since 
March 2003, forcing Iraqi children to stay home from school and women to 
stay off the streets at night. Violent deaths rose from an average of 14 
per month in 2002 to 357 per month in 2003.

/Psychological impact:/ Living under occupation without the most basic 
security has devastated the Iraqi population. A poll conducted by the 
Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies in June found that 80% of 
Iraqis believe that coalition forces should leave either immediately or 
directly after the election.

*/C. Economic costs /*
/Unemployment:/ Iraqi joblessness doubled from 30% before the war to 60% 
in the summer of 2003. While the Bush administration now claims that 
unemployment has dropped, the US is only employing 120,000 Iraqis, of a 
workforce of 7 million, in reconstruction projects.

/Corporate war profiteering:/ Most of Iraq's reconstruction has been 
contracted out to US companies, rather than experienced Iraqi firms. Top 
contractor Halliburton is being investigated for charging $160 million 
for meals that were never served to troops and $61 million in cost 
overruns on fuel deliveries. Halliburton employees also took $6 million 
in kickbacks from sub-contractors, while other employees have reported 
extensive waste, including the abandonment of $85,000 worth of trucks 
because they had flat tires.

/Iraq's oil economy: /Anti-occupation violence has prevented Iraq from 
capitalizing on its oil assets. There have been an estimated 118 attacks 
on Iraq's oil infrastructure since June 2003. By September, oil 
production still had not reached pre-war levels and major attacks caused 
oil exports to plummet to a 10-month low in August.

/*D. Social costs*/
/Health infrastructure: /After more than a decade of crippling 
sanctions, Iraq's health facilities were further damaged during the war 
and post-invasion looting. Iraq's hospitals continue to suffer from lack 
of supplies and an overwhelming number of patients.

/Education:/ The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimates that 
more than 200 schools were destroyed in the conflict and thousands more 
were looted in the chaos following the fall of Saddam Hussein. The State 
Department reported on September 15 that "significant obstacles remain 
in maintaining security for civilian/military reconstruction, logistical 
support and distribution for donations, equipment, textbooks and supplies".

/Environment: /The US-led attack damaged water and sewage systems and 
the country's fragile desert ecosystem. It also resulted in oil well 
fires that spewed smoke across the country and left unexploded ordnance 
that continues to endanger the Iraqi people and environment. Mines and 
unexploded ordnance cause an estimated 20 casualties per month.

/*E. Human-rights costs*/
Even with Saddam overthrown, Iraqis continue to face human-rights 
violations from occupying forces. In addition to the widely publicized 
humiliation and torture of prisoners, abuse has been widespread 
throughout the post-September 11 military operations, with over 300 
allegations of abuse in Afghanistan, Iraq and Guantanamo. As of 
mid-August, only 155 investigations into the existing 300 allegations 
had been completed.

/*F. Sovereignty costs*/
Despite the proclaimed "transfer of sovereignty" to Iraq, the country 
continues to be occupied by US and coalition troops and has severely 
limited political and economic independence. The interim government does 
not have the authority to reverse the nearly 100 orders by former 
Coalition Provisional Authority head L Paul Bremer that, among other 
things, allow for the privatization of Iraq's state-owned enterprises 
and prohibit preferences for domestic firms in reconstruction.

*III. Costs to the world*
/*A. Human costs*/
While Americans make up the vast majority of military and contractor 
personnel in Iraq, other US-allied "coalition" troops have suffered 135 
war casualties in Iraq. In addition, the focus on Iraq has diverted 
international resources and attention away from humanitarian crises such 
as in Sudan.

/*B. Disabling international law*/
The unilateral US decision to go to war in Iraq violated the United 
Nations charter, setting a dangerous precedent for other countries to 
seize any opportunity to respond militarily to claimed threats, whether 
real or contrived, that must be "preempted". The US military has also 
violated the Geneva Convention, making it more likely that in the 
future, other nations will ignore these protections in their treatment 
of civilian populations and detainees.

/*C. Undermining the United Nations*/
At every turn, the Bush administration has attacked the legitimacy and 
credibility of the UN, undermining the institution's capacity to act in 
the future as the centerpiece of global disarmament and conflict 
resolution. The efforts of the Bush administration to gain UN acceptance 
of an Iraqi government that was not elected but rather installed by 
occupying forces undermines the entire notion of national sovereignty as 
the basis for the UN charter. It was on this basis that secretary 
general Kofi Annan referred specifically to the vantage point of the UN 
charter in his September 2004 finding that the war was illegal.

/*D. Enforcing coalitions*/
Faced with opposition in the UN Security Council, the US government 
attempted to create the illusion of multilateral support for the war by 
pressuring other governments to join a so-called "coalition of the 
willing". This not only circumvented UN authority, but also undermined 
democracy in many coalition countries, where public opposition to the 
war was as high as 90%. As of the middle of September, only 29 members 
of the "coalition of the willing" had forces in Iraq, in addition to the 
US. These countries, combined with US, make up less than 14% of the 
world's population.

/*E. Costs to the global economy*/
The $151.1 billion spent by the US government on the war could have cut 
world hunger in half and covered HIV/AIDS medicine, childhood 
immunization and clean water and sanitation needs of the developing 
world for more than two years. As a factor in the oil price hike, the 
war has created concerns of a return to the "stagflation" of the 1970s. 
Already, the world's major airlines are expecting an increase in costs 
of $1 billion or more per month.

/*F. Undermining global security and disarmament*/
The US-led war and occupation have galvanized international terrorist 
organizations, placing people not only in Iraq but around the world at 
greater risk of attack. The State Department's annual report on 
international terrorism reported that in 2003 there was the highest 
level of terror-related incidents deemed "significant" than at any time 
since the US began issuing these figures.

/*G. Global environmental costs*/
US-fired depleted uranium weapons have contributed to pollution of 
Iraq's land and water, with inevitable spillover effects in other 
countries. The heavily polluted Tigris River, for example, flows through 
Iraq, Iran and Kuwait.

/*H. Human rights*/
The Justice Department memo assuring the White House that torture was 
legal stands in stark violation of the International Convention Against 
Torture (of which the US is a signatory). This, combined with the widely 
publicized mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners by US military and 
intelligence officials, gave new license for torture and mistreatment by 
governments around the world.

(Posted with permission from Foreign Policy in Focus <http://www.fpif.org>)