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[Homestead] Politics, September polls in all states
- From: tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>
- To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
- Subject: [Homestead] Politics, September polls in all states
- Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 14:17:11 -0400
Unfortunately not the more-accurate Zogby Polls.
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Related Stories
Long a Republican Bulwark, a Growing Arizona Is in Play <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-arizona16sep16,1,5383339.story>
September 16, 2004
The Da Vincis of the Art of Political Spin <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-op-stranahan12sep12,1,1101715.story>
September 12, 2004
Refighting Vietnam in Battleground States <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-florida25aug25,1,6637695.story>
August 25, 2004
Parties Gambling to Get Out the Nonvote <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-nonvoters12aug12,1,7917478.story>
August 12, 2004
Jobs Grow, Optimism Shrinks in Wisconsin <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-wisconsin9aug09,1,7357564.story>
August 9, 2004
Kerry, Edwards Face Uphill Battle in Republican-Leaning North Carolina <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-carolina10jul10,1,4309477.story>
July 10, 2004
Where Independent Pollsters and Politicians Diverge <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-polling22jun22,1,7677099.story>
June 22, 2004
Campaigns Boiling Down to a Dwindling Swing Vote <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-swings29may29,1,161138.story>
May 29, 2004
Odds Are, Nevada Will Be a Tossup <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-nevada6may06,1,780823.story>
May 6, 2004
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Times Poll: Frequently Asked Questions <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-timespollfaq,1,5571961.htmlstory>
Times Headlines
Down to a Few States, Debates <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-race26sep26,1,4458779.story?coll=la-politics-pointers>
In Washington, They Ask: What Other Race? <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-washrace26sep26,1,3249377.story?coll=la-politics-pointers>
Election Day Becomes 'Just the Last Day to Vote' <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-earlyvote26sep26,1,5878925.story?coll=la-politics-pointers>
Businesses Press Mayoral Candidates on Tax Issue <http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-tax26sep26,1,1716853.story?coll=la-politics-pointers>
Waters Vows to Fight for Hospital <http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-drew26sep26,1,91122.story?coll=la-politics-pointers>
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PRESIDENT BUSH <http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/latimes/results.html?QryTxt=president+Bush>
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State poll data summarized from PollingReport.com <http://www.pollingreport.com>
Following the polls on this page:
. Methodology <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#polldetails> for polls and map colors.
. Nader and third-party <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nader> ballot status
. Electoral Vote Changes <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Electoral> between 2000 and 2004
. About PollingReport.com <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#PollingReport.com> and comment link
How the States Line Up in Latest Polls:
Bush:
Alabama
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Alabama>Alaska
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Alaska>*Arizona
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Arizona>Colorado
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Colorado>Georgia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Georgia>Indiana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Indiana>Idaho
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Idaho>Kansas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Kansas>Kentucky
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Kentucky>Mississippi
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Mississippi>Montana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Montana>Nebraska
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nebraska>North Dakota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#North%20Dakota>Oklahoma
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Oklahoma>South Carolina
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#South%20Carolina>South Dakota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#South%20Dakota>Tennessee
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Tennessee>Texas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Texas>Utah
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Utah>*Wisconsin
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wisconsin>Wyoming
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wyoming>
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wyoming> Swing:
*Arkansas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Arkansas>*Florida
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Florida>*Iowa
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Iowa>Louisiana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Louisiana>*Maine
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Maine>*Michigan
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Michigan>*Minnesota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Minnesota>*Missouri
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Missouri>New Jersey
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Jersey>*New Hampshire
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Hampshire>*New Mexico
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Mexico>*Nevada
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nevada>North Carolina
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#North%20Carolina>*Ohio
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Ohio>*Oregon
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Oregon>*Pennsylvania
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Pennsylvania>Virginia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Virginia>*Washington
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Washington>*West Virginia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#West%20Virginia>
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#West%20Virginia> Kerry:
California
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#California>Connecticut
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Connecticut>Delaware
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Delaware>District of Columbia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#District%20of%20Columbia>Hawaii
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Hawaii>Illinois
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Illinois>Maryland
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Maryland>Massachusetts
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Massachusetts>New York
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20York>Rhode Island
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Rhode%20Island>Vermont
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Vermont>
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Vermont>
Also: Latest national polls <http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm>
*17 "key battleground" states that were cited by the campaigns and other observers earlier this year.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Alabama* /American Research Group. Sept. 13-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 54%
Kerry 40%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
*Return to Top* <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Top>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Alaska* /American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 57%
Kerry 30%
Nader 5%
Other 3%
Unsure 6%
*Return to Top* <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Top>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Arizona* /Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 50%
Kerry 39%
Other 3%
Unsure 8%
Note: The Nader campaign abandoned a bid to get on the ballot here.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
/American Research Group. Sept. 11-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 49%
Kerry 43%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
*Return to Top* <http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Top>
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*Arkansas* /American Research Group. Sept. 15-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 48%
Kerry 45%
Other 2%
Unsure 5%
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*California* /Los Angeles Times Poll. Sept. 17-21, 2004. N=861 likely voters (MoE ± 3): /
Bush 40%
Kerry 55%
Unsure 5%
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*Colorado* /Ciruli Associates for The Pueblo Chieftain. Sept. 14-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 50%
Kerry 38%
Nader 3%
Other 1%
Unsure 8%
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/Rocky Mountain News/News 4 Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R). Sept. 12-13, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.3:/
Bush 45%
Kerry 44%
Nader 3%
Unsure 6%
Note: Colorado will vote on a ballot initiative that would split its nine electoral votes proportionately. It is written to apply to this election, but if passed, there may be a legal battle over that provision.
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*Connecticut* /American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 39%
Kerry 54%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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*Delaware* /American Research Group. Sept. 13-15, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 41%
Kerry 50%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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*District of Columbia* /American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 11%
Kerry 78%
Nader 6%
Other 1%
Unsure 4%
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*Florida* /CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 18-22, 2004. N=843 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 4); 674 likely voters (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Neither/Other/Unsure 3%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 45%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Note: Two earlier September polls taken during hurricanes are not shown.
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/Research 2000 for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel and The Florida Times-Union. Aug. 23-25, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters):/
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Unsure 6%
Note: Voters were asked who would they vote for if Nader were not on ballot. Net results were Bush 46%, Kerry 47%, Unsure 7%.
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*Georgia* /Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:/
Bush 58%
Kerry 36%
Unsure 6%
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*Hawaii* /American Research Group. Sept. 7-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 41%
Kerry 51%
Nader 4%
Unsure 4%
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*Idaho* /American Research Group. Sept. 8-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 59%
Kerry 30%
Nader 3%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
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*Illinois* /Research 2000 for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5: /
Bush 39%
Kerry 54%
Unsure 7%
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*Indiana* /Research 2000 for The South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. Sept. 7-9, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 54%
Kerry 38%
Unsure 8%
Note: The Nader campaign has abandoned a bid to get on the ballot here.
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*Iowa* /Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. Sept. 19-21, 2004. N=602 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters):/
Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 2%
Unsure 6%
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/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=766 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 4); 631 likely voters (MoE ± 5):/
Bush 50%
Kerry 44%
Nader 2%
Unsure 4%
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/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 13-15, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:/
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Unsure 4%
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*Kansas* /American Research Group. Sept. 15-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 57%
Kerry 35%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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*Kentucky* /Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll. Sept. 10-15, 2004. N=657 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.8: /
Bush 53%
Kerry 38%
Nader 3%
Unsure 6%
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*Louisiana* /American Research Group. Sept. 17-21, 2004. N=600 likely voters (MoE ± 4): /
Bush 50%
Kerry 42%
Nader 1%
Unsure 7%
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*Maine* /Critical Insights. Sept. 10-23, 2004. N=600 adults statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 42%
Kerry 45%
Nader 3%
Unsure 10%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 8-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 44%
Kerry 48%
Nader 4%
Unsure 5%
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*Maryland* /American Research Group. Sept. 7-9, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 43%
Kerry 52%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
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*Massachusetts* /American Research Group. Sept. 10-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 27%
Kerry 64%
Nader 1%
Unsure 7%
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*Michigan* /FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/
Bush 44%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Unsure 9%
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/EPIC/MRA. Sept. 15-19, 2004. N=610 active voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all active voters):/
Bush 44%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Unsure 6%
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*Minnesota* /Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3: /
Bush 45%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Unsure 5%
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/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 11-14, 2004. N=675 likely voters (MoE ± 4): /
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Unsure 6%
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/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. Sept. 7-13, 2004. N=1,035 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3: /
Bush 41%
Kerry 50%
Nader 1%
Unsure 8%
Note: A July poll showed Libertarian Michael Badnarik with 1%.
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*Missouri* /American Research Group. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 50%
Kerry 44%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
Note: Nader not on ballot.
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 48%
Kerry 41%
Nader 1%
Unsure 10%
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*Mississippi* /American Research Group. Sept. 14-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 51%
Kerry 42%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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*Montana* /Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Lee Newspapers. Sept. 20-22, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 54%
Kerry 36%
Nader 2%
Unsure 8%
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*Nebraska* /American Research Group. Sept. 9-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 61%
Kerry 30%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Note: Nebraska last went Democratic in 1964.
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*Nevada* /CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 18-21, 2004. N=535 likely voters (MoE ± 5):/
Bush 52%
Kerry 43%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
Note: Among all registered voters, poll has Bush at 48% and Kerry at 46%.
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder, MSNBC and The Las Vegas Review-Journal. Sept. 13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 50%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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*New Hampshire* /American Research Group. Sept. 15-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 13-15, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 49%
Kerry 40%
Nader 3%
Unsure 8%
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*New Jersey* /Quinnipiac University Poll. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=943 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 3.2); 672 likely voters (MoE ± 3.8):/
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Wouldn't Vote 2%
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/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 10-12, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3: /
Bush 43%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Unsure 9%
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*New Mexico* /American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 44%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder, MSNBC, The Santa Fe New Mexican, and KOB-TV. Sept. 15-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 47%
Kerry 43%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
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*New York* /Siena College Poll. Sept. 20-23, 2004. N=1,121 registered voters statewide:/
Bush 31%
Kerry 51%
Nader 2%
Unsure 17%
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*North Carolina* /American Research Group. Sept. 13-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Note: Nader not on ballot
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*North Dakota* /American Research Group. Sept. 7-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 62%
Kerry 33%
Nader 1%
Unsure 4%
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*Ohio* /FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/
Bush 48%
Kerry 44%
Nader 2%
Unsure 6%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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/University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll. Sept. 12-18, 2004. N=456 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.6 (for all likely voters):/
Bush 54%
Kerry 43%
Nader 2%
Unsure 1%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 14-15, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 49%
Kerry 42%
Nader 2%
Unsure 7%
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*Oklahoma* /Wilson Research Strategies (R) for KWTV. Sept. 17-19, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.4:/
Bush 64%
Kerry 24%
Unsure 13%
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*Oregon* /Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 47%
Kerry 43%
Nader 1%
Unsure 9%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 10-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 45%
Kerry 47%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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*Pennsylvania* /FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/
Bush 45%
Kerry 48%
Nader 1%
Unsure 6%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 44%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%
Unsure 10%
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*Rhode Island* /American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 30%
Kerry 58%
Nader 4%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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* South Carolina* /American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 52%
Kerry 40%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
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*South Dakota* /American Research Group. Sept. 8-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 58%
Kerry 39%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 2%
Note: South Dakota last went Democratic in 1964
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*Tennessee* /American Research Group. Sept. 16-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 50%
Kerry 43%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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*Texas* /American Research Group. Sept. 16-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 58%
Kerry 36%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 5%
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*Utah* /Dan Jones & Associates for The Deseret News and KSL-TV. Sept. 6-9, 2004. N=915 voters statewide. MoE ± 3.3:/
Bush 65%
Kerry 25%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
Note: Utah last went Democratic in 1964
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*Vermont* /American Research Group. Sept. 9-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 40%
Kerry 50%
Nader 4%
Unsure 7%
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*Virginia* /American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 49%
Kerry 43%
Other 1%
Unsure 7%
Note: Nader not on ballot.
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*Washington* /Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 20-22, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3:/
Bush 45%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Unsure 7%
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/Ipsos-Public Affairs for The Columbian. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=406 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 5:/
Bush 41%
Kerry 49%
Nader 2%
Unsure 8%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 9-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 44%
Kerry 51%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
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*West Virginia* /MCNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=619 likely voters (MoE ± 5):/
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%
Unsure 4%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 45%
Kerry 44%
Unsure 11%
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*Wisconsin* /University of Wisconsin/Capital Times/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Badger Poll. Sept. 15-21, 2004. N=485 adults statewide who are registered to vote or have definite plans to register so they can vote in the election on Nov. 2 (MoE ± 4), including 468 who "said they would either certainly or probably actually cast ballots" (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 52%
Kerry 38%
Nader 4%
Unsure 5%
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/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush 46%
Kerry 44%
Nader 1%
Unsure 9%
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/American Research Group. Sept. 12-15, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 6%
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*Wyoming* /American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush 65%
Kerry 29%
Nader 2%
Unsure 3%
Note: Wyoming last went Democratic in 1964.
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Polls, Methodology and the Interactive Map
The U.S. presidential election is decided by the results of 51 electoral vote contests. In all states except Maine and Nebraska the electoral votes go to the winner of the popular vote in a "winner-take-all" system. (Colorado is considering an initiative to create proportional distribution of its electoral vote in November.) Thus, trends in the campaign must be considered on a state-by-state basis.
The initial setting of the pop-up flash interactive map is colored red or blue if either candidate in the latest major poll has a lead outside the margin of error. Poll data are provided by PollingReport.com; only polls with methodologies that meet its standards are used. The initial setting also shows a recent national poll for reference, but note that the national vote does not determine the winner. PollingReport.com lists national polls on the free section of its site; see link at the top right of this page.
The Times' map does not attempt to indicate states that are "leaning" one way or another or make conclusions about trends from a series of polls. The data used is from the most recent major poll only. In a few cases, we've included other recent polls above.
When no recent poll is available but voting trends and patterns suggest one candidate is likely to win a state, this page and the map may show a state as "Bush" or "Kerry." Otherwise the state is white, indicated by "swing" above or "Up for Grabs" on the map.
Polls are a snapshot in time; changes are expected. Notes below each state may indicate a second poll taken within a few weeks or another relevant factor. The campaigns, The Times and other observers have identified 17 key battleground states that are indicated with an asterik in the first list of states at the top of this page.
The poll data presented here are from probability-sample surveys, conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Where available, surveys of likely presidential election voters are used. However, users should be aware that polling organizations screen for "likely" voters in different ways. All generally use various combinations of three criteria: Voting history, interest in the election and stated intention to vote. But variations in the results of different surveys are to be expected. For example, some organizations will never use a first-time voter in a poll because they have no voting history while others may include them if their answers to certain screening questions indicate they are interested in the election.
In addition, some organizations weight their results to conform to specific proportions of political party identification (sometimes based on past turnout or other polls that ask about party identification), while others consider that variable to be too changeable to use as a weight.
In some cases, polls that have been reported in the news media are not included here because details of the survey methodology are unavailable.
When a poll has asked presidential preferences both with and without Ralph Nader, the survey that includes Ralph Nader is used. If Nader ultimately does not qualify for a state's ballot, however, the survey without him will be used. Other third-party candidates will be on this page if they had at least one percent in the poll but added to "undecided" on the map, due to space constraints.
Some polls used name the vice presidential candidates and some do not. Full details are available from PollingReport.com.
The map, its colors and all notes are by latimes.com. Only the reported polling data comes from PollingReport.com.
On the initial setting of the map, white states are within the latest polls' stated margin of error (MoE ±). ( Definitions of margin of error. <http://www.google.com/search?q=define%3A&q=margin+of+error&Overview=1>) "Bush" states are states with red and "Kerry" states are blue.
Comments may appear as you roll over states. "Safe" is used when there are large leads in polls and trends from previous elections for one party or another.
(R) or (D) sometimes appears to indicate that the polling organization is often associated with one party or the other.
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Electoral Vote Changes for 2004
After the 2000 census, seats in the House of Representatives were reallocated based on new population trends. Electoral votes are based on those numbers. Here are the changes for 2004 from 2000:
*Gained Electoral Votes:* Arizona (+2); Florida (+2); Georgia (+2); Texas (+2); California (+1); Colorado (+1); Nevada (+1); North Carolina (+1).
*Lost Electoral Votes:* New York (-2); Pennsylvania (-2); Connecticut (-1); Indiana (-1); Illinois (-1); Michigan (-1); Mississippi (-1); Ohio (-1); Oklahoma (-1); Wisconsin (-1).
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Ballot Standing of Third Parties and Ralph Nader:
Libertarian Mark Badnarik appears to be safely on the ballot in all states except Oklahoma. Green Party candidate David Cobb is likely to be on 30 state ballots and Constitution Party candidate Michael Anthonty Peroutka is likely to be on about 40 state ballots. Of these, only Badnarik has had as much as one percent in state polls covered by this page since June. Those were in Minnesota and Iowa. There are other third-party candidates as well, but they are on fewer state ballots.
Ralph Nader, however, is often included in these surveys and polls above one percent routinely. However, Nader is unlikely to be on as many state ballots as he was on in 2000, when he was on 43 ballots.
Although not all authorites agree, as of Sept. 22, 2004:
. Nader appears to be permanently blocked from the ballot in Arizona, California, Georgia, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Virginia.
. Legal challenges continue in Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Texas.
. Nader appears to be qualified for the ballot in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakoka, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
In states where Ralph Nader is not on a party ticket, his campaign had to file independent petitions to appear on the ballot.
The Reform Party endorsed Nader, which enabled him to skip petition drives. However, litigation and battles within the Reform Party in some states made his status unclear. Other appeals and litigation continues over several issues, including the issue of Republicans gathering petitions for him.
Because Nader's former group, the Green Party, elected not to endorse him this year, he will not appear automatically on the Green ticket in the 22 states where the party has gained ballot access.
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- [Homestead] Politics, September polls in all states, tvoivozhd, 09/26/2004
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