[permaculture] Is permaculture easy? (was Peak Oil)
semaley at yahoo.com
Wed Jul 25 21:32:24 EDT 2007
To be clear, there is much confusion on the numbers published for oil production. First, there are several information sources, including: IEA and EIA. To add to the confusion, none of them define their terms the same way; many report "total liquids", which includes Natural Gas Liquids, plus the usual Crude and Condensate. The "total liquids" peak stands around 84-86 million barrels per day. Debate against the concept of Peak Oil usually involves production "potential" total liquids, which is effectively opinion.
In fact, the Crude + Condensate has declined since November 2005 (note the price). What we should remain as the alarming statistics should be the export market. The big three exporters - Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Norway - account for a significant portion of the expected production increases. Norway has the most reliable statistics and has failed to increase production, due to less than expected production. Nobody really knows why Russian and Saudi exports have been declining, but Saudi Arabia claims global inventories have been "oversupplied".
The export market becomes more significant when we remember that these exporting nations have a surplus of a resource, so increase their use of it. As their production hits "unexpected" snags and declines, the exports decline at the combined rate of domestic growth of consumption plus the decline rate. Major exporters tend to become importers within just a few years (UK for example).
There could be oil pumped for hundreds of years, but the question will be how quickly the top consumers will have to cut their consumption to match the export markets. When depends on which country you live and the strength of your currency. The USA is in deep fertilizer (sub-prime scandal causing currency to plummet, combined with a 30% dependency on export markets).
Toby Hemenway <toby at patternliteracy.com> wrote: I frequent "The Oil Drum" website often and 20-40 years to be the consensus among some very savvy oil-industry and Peak-Oil people who write there. It's a very rational site, mostly. But we're talking at much, much higher prices than we pay now. I didn't mean that it will be enough to satisfy demand or pump as much as we are pumping today. Just that oil isn't going to be out of the mix for a while yet. It sounds like we could pump about 30 million barrels per day by 2040 instead of
the 90 million we pump now, at least in some of their scenarios. About 1960 levels, if I remember my numbers right.
Healing Hawk wrote:
> Hi, Toby,
> What information sources do you use that tell you there is three decades of
> oil left available to us? I want very much to believe you are correct on
> this. Thanks.
> Tommy Tolson
> Ecocity Austin
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