[permaculture] Peak Oil -

Sean Maley semaley at yahoo.com
Thu Jul 12 11:13:16 EDT 2007


Just pointing out some oddities in the article's numbers.

The Earth's crust, where one might find oil:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/structure/crust/index.php

This article implies we might find oil 20 million feet to the center of the earth.  However, the deepest wells he quotes haven't produced comparably to the more productive wells found to date.

http://www.evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?page=blogentry&blogid=363&authorid=12&archive=0

" As Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes explains in "Hubbert's Peak", oil is usually found in rocks that have been in an "oil window" of between 7,500 and 15,000 feet. Oil bearing rocks that have been deeper than 15,000 in their geologic history will usually -- but not always as Jack No. 2 illustrates -- have had their hydrocarbons cooked into natural gas."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knotty_Head

Remember, the world consumes 30+ billion barrels (total liquids, not actual oil) per year.  Therefore, however large new discoveries may be, they need to be able to pump that much over the course of a year.  You know there are problems when they start increasing the number of wells dramatically (rate slows down, so pump from more wells to make up for production loss).

Saudi Arabia has dramatically increase the number of wells pumping over recent years.  The precedent case to draw conclusions would be Texas, where the race has been lost to increase the number of wells to keep pace with production declines.  EIA recently removed data from their web site to support this.  However, the full USA production figures are still there from 1920.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus2m.htm

In order to understand the situation fully, you really need to look at the export markets, combined with the number of wells producing by the major exporters.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/rigs.html

As you can see, there is a lack of available data.  However, some have followed news releases and other sources of data to find an interesting story:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/04/more_speculatio.html

Each of these large exporters of oil also use oil themselves.  In fact, having so much, they naturally consume more every year.  This means that any slow down in production growth must be considered against their domestic consumption growth.  Mexico would be an example, where their exports have declined twice as fast as the actual production decline (exports declining by double digits percentage).

The end may not be near, but change certainly is.


-Sean.
"Lawrence F. London, Jr." <lflj at bellsouth.net> wrote: 
I suggested some time ago that the Peak Oil issue is just a distraction so get back to work, grow your own food, get off 
the grid, start recycling and conserving everything you can, build community and your own home and farm, network with 
like-minded friends and more. I read a machinist's forum on the Web. Someone in the oil industry posted this today and I 
thought you all might be interested in reading this kind of opinion that is not often heard. - LL
||||
Topic: Oil "crunch" coming

You guys are on the wrong side of the oil doom and gloom game.

There is plenty of oil left in Mother earths belly. As oil prices go up, so does the R&D into technologies to recover 
more from less. Dollars are spent to go ever deeper.

The deepest wells today are around 35,000 feet.
The journey to the center of the Earth is about
20,925,379.2 feet. Do the math we are scratching the surface so to speak. Terms like Ultra-deep, and "price per barrel" 
are all relative are'nt they.

A comparison on relativity....

You pay for bottled water?
If oil was water, you'd be paying $162 to fill up your 15 gallon water tank.


You know what a gallon (liter) of gas costs the average European?

I just came back from Shanghai. You have know idea how good us Americans have it with oil.


Last year I made a carrier change due to high oil prices.

I am now in R&D in a oil service company. Higher oil prices means new technology and money is being applied into 
extracting more oil from existing wells.

The artificial lift business is growing by leaps and bounds. We are going into retired wells and applying new technology 
to extract oil from wells that were declared dried up when oil was at $25 per barrel.
Now that oil is where it is price wise, all of a sudden these old dried up holes are flowing gang busters again. That's 
because it is now financially fesable to apply hi tech (expensive relative term again) technology.

The paranoia about no more oil comes on like the bird flu or something.
The news casters mention it, and all of a sudden it's an epedimic.

Why not research some news from say 1877.
That was the year Mr. Rockerfeller controlled 90% of the worlds refining capacity. You should read the doom and gloomers 
back then.

Remeber a guy named Jimmy Carter?

We have been running out of oil ever since
450BC. That was when Herodotus discovered oil pits near Babylon.

40BC it was on the surface, today it is 40,000 feet below. So what....

Sure alternate energy is a great thing. We should defienetly kick our "addiction" to oil.

Higher oil prices will be what drives all the Alternate energy research, not the bleeding hearts that want to "save" the 
Earth.

In large part, the economic expansion the U.S., and many parts of the world are experiencing is due in large part by 
these higher oil prices. In my world, life is good.

Let's stop drinking the cool-aid about us running out of oil.

Fill er' up

| From: Houston  |

-- 
Lawrence F. London, Jr.
Venaura Farm
lflj at bellsouth.net.net
http://venaurafarm.blogspot.com/
http://www.ibiblio.org/ecolandtech


_______________________________________________
permaculture mailing list
permaculture at lists.ibiblio.org
Subscribe or unsubscribe here:
http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/permaculture





 
---------------------------------
Now that's room service! Choose from over 150,000 hotels 
in 45,000 destinations on Yahoo! Travel to find your fit.



More information about the permaculture mailing list