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msar-riders - Re: [MSAR] search models/ subject behavior

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  • From: "IRVIN LICHTENSTEIN" <ilichten1@verizon.net>
  • To: "'Mounted search and rescue'" <msar-riders@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [MSAR] search models/ subject behavior
  • Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2011 16:41:57 -0500

The original text books on search management, ERI's and NASAR's MSO/MSF used
the Syrotuck model of victim behavior. With an n (case count) of less than
30 this was statistically possible but a much larger population was needed
to have an accurate model. They did lead to a doughnut shaped model with
the size of the hole being based on travel time and distance estimates which
were often quite accurate. We often used these models and found the subject
on the edge of the hole as the model predicted. The models were dropped
from NASAR's MLPI manuals however. Does anyone have sufficient (more than
100 cases perhaps) accurate data to create a statistical model based on
activities, age, terrain, experience, and other factors that can be
determined in the field? This would be brute force correlation and
regression analysis for inference so more cases the better.

It was also common practice 20 years ago to ascertain what resources were
available and how to get them. In Pennsylvania search is run by the local
police as a missing person and any field work usually goes first to the
volunteer fire company because they have free people, big trucks, and lots
of radios. Then maybe a specialized resource gets called in to assist.
You may be a search manager but the fire chief is the incident commander. He
may not understand why some other, out of area, resource is needed to get
the job done efficiently.

Lastly, look at the benefit, if any, of the operation. Fortunately, dead
bodies don't care how long it takes to find them, only the local IC and the
coroner do. Some operations are too risky for searchers to undertake.
Generally, I would say any recovery is too risky in other than perfect
weather conditions. Unless there is some imperative you should not have
searchers out in blowing snow, several feet of snow accumulation, and
immediately dangerous temperatures.

Example: Went out for an ice skater once, a long time ago. It was around 5F
and 15MPH gusts, blowing snow off the lake. Our tracking teams followed his
skate marks across the lake, improvising ice sleds from backboards until we
found an area of newly frozen ice, about 3 feet square at the end of the
track. The spot was marked with a cairn, the local police made the
notification. After 4 hours of work the next day the dive team got the
recovery story in the local paper. Was it worth it? Maybe to the man's
family but it would have not been worth it if a searcher (even a dog
handler) had gone in the lake. The dive team thought it was not worth under
ice diving after a few hours on the job earlier in the day. They had gone
home and were called back for the recovery, well after dawn.

By the way we only have two seasons here-- too cold or too hot. They opened
some rebuilt concrete bridges today and kept one closed because it was too
cold to pave. Got to spend the stimulus money.

Irv Lichtenstein
-----Original Message-----
From: msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org
[mailto:msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org] On Behalf Of Jeff Hasse
Sent: Wednesday, January 05, 2011 1:55 PM
To: Mounted search and rescue
Subject: Re: [MSAR] snow searches





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