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msar-riders - Re: [MSAR] C.A.S.S.I.E

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Subject: Mounted search and rescue

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  • From: "IRVIN LICHTENSTEIN" <ilichten1@verizon.net>
  • To: "'Mounted search and rescue'" <msar-riders@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [MSAR] C.A.S.S.I.E
  • Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:01:42 -0400

This software, mentioned in several search management texts, was designed to
do the probability calculations described in the texts. The idea was
someone who could type but not do arithmetic (like me) would input the
numbers and the machine would print out results for plans and ops to use to
run the search. You had to have a computer (and this was DOS so they were
big and expensive) and a printer to make it work. With the advent of really
small portables carrying around a computer is easier today but you still
need to print out the results as they change over time. Presumably, there is
a way to share the results files among the plans and ops people but paper
still seems to work best.

A basic fact to consider is that many of these hypotheticals were built
around very small numbers of cases. When the original CASIE was written I
doubt if there were a hundred cases in its statistical model. Some
management texts, such as Managing Lost Person Incident's first edition
dropped many of the equations developed from the early models. Also, many
of these models were actually self fulfilling prophecies since they were
based on successful locations for the most part.

I may still have a copy around here somewhere, on 3.5 inch disk.

Irv Lichtenstein

-----Original Message-----
From: msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org
[mailto:msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org] On Behalf Of Una Smith
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2008 10:38 PM
To: Mounted search and rescue
Subject: Re: [MSAR] C.A.S.S.I.E






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