Tompkins County Relocalization Project

[Tompkins County Relocalization Project <tcrp-news AT lists.ibiblio.org>]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/wef/article3248484.ece

From The Times [of London]
January 25, 2008
Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years
Carl Mortished, World Business Editor

World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven
years, according to Royal Dutch Shell.

The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies
will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid
pace of economic development.

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to
the company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and
gas was close to peaking. He wrote: "Shell estimates that after
2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up
with demand."

The boss of the world’s second-largest oil company forecast that,
regardless of government policy initiatives and investment in
renewables, the world would need more nuclear power and
unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil sands.

"Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time
when climate change has become a critical global issue," he wrote.

Mr van der Veer is expected to discuss Shell’s energy outlook
today at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

In his e-mail, which was reported on RoyalDutchShellplc.com, an
independent website that monitors the company, Shell’s chief set
out two scenarios for the world’s energy future.

The first scenario, "Scramble", envisages a mad dash by nations to
secure resources. With policymakers viewing energy as "a zero-sum
game," use of domestic coal and biofuels accelerates.

It is a world, said the Shell chief, where "policymakers pay
little attention to energy consumption – until supplies run
short."

The alternative scenario, "Blue-prints", envisages a world of
political cooperation between governments on efficiency standards
and taxes, a convergence of policies on emissions trading and
local initiatives to improve environmental performance of
buildings.

Shell has not committed to either scenario. The oil company
regularly uses scenario-planning to test the likely impact of
widely divergent economic and political scenarios on its long-term
strategy.

Unsurprisingly, Mr van der Veer indicated that Shell preferred the
Blueprints scenario but he expressed caution over the likelihood
of it coming to pass without a global approach to emissions
trading.

The Blueprints scenario assumes that 90 per cent of CO2 is
captured by coal and gas power plants in developed countries by
2050, and at least half of the CO2 emitted by power stations in
the developing world. No such plants are in operation today, noted
the Shell chief. "It will be hard work and there is little time,"
he said.

Mr van der Veer’s comments emerged in the same week that the
European Commission launched reforms to its carbon trading system,
with plans to force power stations to buy permits to emit CO2.

In an acknowledgement of the challenge of securing global
acceptance of the need to curb carbon emissions, the Commission
President, José Manuel Barroso, said that the Commission would
consider the possibility of taxing imports into the EU by
countries that failed to take equivalent measures to curb carbon
emissions.

Mr van der Veer’s prediction that the oil industry would soon
struggle to deliver sufficient conventional oil and gas to meet
demand echoes growing concern from other oil bosses.