Mounted search and rescue

["irvin lichtenstein" <ilichten1@verizon.net>]

According to TV news reports a 13 year old male who ran away from home over a bad report card was found just yards from his home

along the banks of Darby Creek near Newtown Square, PA. Sunday morning (March 8, 2015) Cause of death is pending the post mortem examination but the subject was described as being in a fetal position under the snow that was melting off following several days

of snow, sleet, and sub-freezing temperatures in the area.  The boy reportedly left home dressed in a down coat, ski pants, and hiking boots.  Given the weather hypothermia is a likely contributing factor.

 

Hundreds of community volunteers risked their lives in the poor weather starting several days after the disappearance.  Given reported

weather and terrain the creek bank should have been a priority area in the search.  While normally a doughnut hole approach is used

in prioritizing the initial search area based on subject behavior, terrain, and time the weather, age, and emotional state of the

subject reduced the initial travel distance  prior to search initialization.

 

A basic principle of search management is to search as efficiently as possible, but one must also be thorough.  If a search task is

well executed there is a probability of approximately fifty percent that the task will discover evidence that the search subject

was in the area.  The area is then searched by a different task, preferably moving in a different direction, repeatedly.

The first search yields 50%, the second increases the yield to 75%, and a third would increase the yield to 87.5% (90% for practical

purposes).   This system, developed in the 1980’s, reduces the manpower needed by several factors, reduces the damage to

the ground and destruction of possible clues, and increases the efficiency of the overall effort.  It may also allow the deployment

of search persons who have been trained in clue detection and survival instead of spontaneous volunteers in a risky situation.