Mounted search and rescue

["Jeff Hasse" <jhasse@comcast.net>]

To answer your question, yes, the International Search and Rescue Incident Database combines over 40 separate databases (including Syrotuck's research) into a single large database of over 50,000 SAR incidents.  Syrotuck's original research included eight subject categories.  This database includes 41.  While a few of the categories still suffer the insufficient n validity problem, most have enough cases to be quite predictive.  For example, Syrotuck reported on 44 cases of missing hikers.  The ISRID contains 3,837 missing hikers.  The database has been summarized into a book called Lost Person Behavior by Robert J. Koester and I strongly recommend it to anyone interested in Search Management.  It can be purchased at:  http://www.dbs-sar.com/LPB/lpb.htm.

 

Incidentally, the reason the "donut hole" model was dropped from recent texts is that it has been widely debunked.  It arose from Syrotuck's early work and method of reporting statistics.  Meta-analysis of large incident databases failed to show the bell-shaped curve that was predicted by Syrotuck's small study.  Unfortunately, since he was one of the first researchers in the field, the idea stuck around for a long time.  (It is how I was originally taught too.)  Chapter 6 of Koester's book explains this much more clearly than I could.

 

We have the same issue in MN that you describe in PA.  The local Sheriff (or city PD) is in charge of searches by statute and we are often called in after several days have passed.  Even when we are given free-reign over running the search, LE retains jurisdictional authority over the incident.  This is why I no longer use the term Incident Commander for our leadership and instead use the term Search Manager.  No matter how much authority the SM is given, he/she still reports to law enforcement.  Sometimes it is quite a delicate dance to convince them to accept our recommendations, but the situation is what it is.

 

I also agree with your recommendation regarding weighing the risks vs. benefits of an operation.  I believe that is true for both live rescues and recovery operations, but with a much higher standard of safety for recovery operations.  The other part of that equation is using highly qualified resources to mitigate risk.  What is too risky for one group may be a perfectly reasonable risk for another with a higher level of training and equipment.

 

Regards,

 

Jeff

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: "IRVIN LICHTENSTEIN" <ilichten1@verizon.net>

To: "'Mounted search and rescue'" <msar-riders@lists.ibiblio.org>

Sent: Wednesday, January 05, 2011 3:41 PM

Subject: Re: [MSAR] search models/ subject behavior

> The original text books on search management, ERI's and NASAR's 
MSO/MSF used
> the Syrotuck model of victim behavior.  With an n 
(case count) of less than
> 30 this was statistically possible but a much 
larger population was needed
> to have an accurate model.  They did 
lead to a doughnut shaped model with
> the size of the hole being based on 
travel time and distance estimates which
> were often quite 
accurate.  We often used these models and found the subject
> on the 
edge of the hole as the model predicted.  The models were dropped
> 
from NASAR's MLPI manuals however. Does anyone have sufficient (more 
than
> 100 cases perhaps) accurate data to create a statistical model 
based on
> activities, age, terrain, experience, and other factors that 
can be
> determined in the field? This would be brute force correlation 
and
> regression analysis for inference so more cases the better.
> 
> It was also common practice 20 years ago to ascertain what resources 
were
> available and how to get them. In Pennsylvania search is run by the 
local
> police as a missing person and any field work usually goes first 
to the
> volunteer fire company because they have free people, big trucks, 
and lots
> of radios.  Then maybe a specialized resource gets called 
in to assist.
> You may be a search manager but the fire chief is the 
incident commander. He
> may not understand why some other, out of area, 
resource is needed to get
> the job done efficiently.  
> 
> Lastly, look at the benefit, if any, of the operation.  
Fortunately, dead
> bodies don't care how long it takes to find them, only 
the local IC and the
> coroner do.  Some operations are too risky for 
searchers to undertake.
> Generally, I would say any recovery is too risky 
in other than perfect
> weather conditions.  Unless there is some 
imperative you should not have
> searchers out in blowing snow, several 
feet of snow accumulation, and
> immediately dangerous temperatures.  
> 
> Example: Went out for an ice skater once, a long time ago. It 
was around 5F
> and 15MPH gusts, blowing snow off the lake.  Our 
tracking teams followed his
> skate marks across the lake, improvising ice 
sleds from backboards until we
> found an area of newly frozen ice, about 
3 feet square at the end of the
> track.  The spot was marked with a 
cairn, the local police made the
> notification. After 4 hours of work the 
next day the dive team got the
> recovery story in the local paper.  
Was it worth it? Maybe to the man's
> family but it would have not been 
worth it if a searcher (even a dog
> handler) had gone in the lake.  
The dive team thought it was not worth under
> ice diving after a few 
hours on the job earlier in the day. They had gone
> home and were called 
back for the recovery, well after dawn.
> 
> By the way we only have 
two seasons here-- too cold or too hot. They opened
> some rebuilt 
concrete bridges today and kept one closed because it was too
> cold to 
pave.  Got to spend the stimulus money. 
> 
> Irv Lichtenstein 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org
> [mailto:msar-riders-bounces@lists.ibiblio.org] On Behalf Of Jeff 
Hasse
> Sent: Wednesday, January 05, 2011 1:55 PM
> To: Mounted 
search and rescue
> Subject: Re: [MSAR] snow searches
> 
> 
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