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  • From: paul@oneseedling.com
  • To: Healthy soil and sustainable growing <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Global Warming: How do we move forward?
  • Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2010 15:23:23 -0500

I agree, there is no way to predict the future, especially when it comes to
weather.
This is why I like permaculture, using plants and animals that don't require
a lot of maintenance.
This year we had a bumper crop of hay. Everybody is bailing like crazy and
hay is only going for $4.50 a bale. Now when you figure in fuel costs, twine,
parts and help,'well that is around -$1.50 for each bale.
Since we do around 8,000 bales, my fields are going to just get a break this
year.
Guess the rest of them will just show up at the bank with their hands out as
usual. My daddy did not raise such a foolish child.

Sent from my iPhone

On Aug 13, 2010, at 1:24 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:

>
> [ This isn't to debate global warming or predict the future but rather to
> understand the links between the perfect storm headed our way and how we
> live on the land and use it or abuse it - paul tradingpost@lobo.net ]
> ~~~~~~~~~~~
>
> Global Warming: How do we move forward?
> by Joanne Poyourow Aug 10 2010 by Transition US
> http://www.energybulletin.net/node/53738
>
> To the 1Sky board of directors:
>
> In your open letter to all people and organizations working to combat
> global warming, you ask how to move forward with urgency and clarity of
> purpose.
>
> 1) Understand the full scope of the problem.
>
> Global warming is not a standalone issue. At the same time as we are
> trying to decarbonize our entire society and cope with the erratic weather
> events of early climate change, we are simultaneously being hit with peak
> oil and economic contraction.
>
> Peak oil is the understanding that our planet contains a finite supply of
> oil and we are currently burning our way into the second half of that
> supply. (ref ASPO and the Department of Energy's EIA). We’ve already used
> up the easy-to-get-to stuff; thus the second half will be much more
> expensive to produce, will disappear faster, and will come with shortages,
> competition and conflict.
>
> All of the growth in our economy since the turn of the last century has
> been built upon cheap, abundant, supposedly inexhaustible oil -- something
> we no longer have. The astounding recent growth has been compounded by
> leveraging with easy credit -- another thing we no longer have. Our
> growth-paradigm economy is crumbling and indeed, that very presumption is
> flawed, that we could have an eternally growing economy upon a finite
> planet.
>
> In short, we are facing change on a scale and magnitude which is almost
> unimaginable to most of the American public.
>
> 2) Confront the full panorama of challenges.
>
> Any solutions posted at this point in time must work for the full panorama
> of crises: global warming + peak oil + economic contraction. Solutions
> which work for one and not for the trio will not be viable. Thus ideas
> such as the 1Sky "investment in a clean-energy infrastructure" are
> unlikely-to-impossible; while it works for global warming, it doesn't work
> in an environment of economic collapse. (Your Lesson #3 was telling you
> this.)
>
> 3) Get real about the science.
>
> The Hansen report gave us the 350 number; we cannot fold on that.
> "Negotiations" will not change basic physics. We cannot negotiate with
> molecules. We're above 392ppm and we need to return to 350. (Your lesson
> #4)
>
> Get real about the magnitude of energy we’re talking about. Renewables
> won't replace fossils, not even close. Because we do not already have
> renewable energy infrastructure geared up and in place, and the declining
> side of planetary oil supply is already here (ref), and because renewable
> energy technologies cannot possibly replace the magnitude of energy to
> which we have become accustomed (ref), our future will inevitably be one of
> POWERDOWN -- changing to lifestyles which use less energy overall. (why
> not nuclear? ref , ref and ref)
>
> As part of moving forward with urgency and clarity of purpose, we need to
> be honest with the American people that decarbonizing and simultaneously
> coping with peak oil means POWERDOWN.
>
> 4) Be honest about the economy.
>
> People are hurting. They are afraid. They sense that worse is coming (and
> I believe it is. ref )
>
> More expensive renewable technologies won't be welcomed. But clean tech is
> inevitable (because of global warming) and higher cost is inevitable
> (because of peak oil).
>
> Be careful about your language regarding the economy. Understand that the
> underlying presumption of economic-growth-at-all-costs is what got us into
> a lot of this mess. Substituting a "clean energy economy" and "green jobs"
> isn't the right tack because it retains that growth presumption. As part
> of moving forward with urgency and clarity of purpose, we must educate
> people that the new economic horizons are more likely to look radically
> different than the old. (How might they look? more
> http://transitionla.org/Resources.htm#econ )
>
> 5) Get real about the "How To" plan.
>
> Decarbonizing American society -- attaining an eventual 80% decrease in
> global warming pollution -- is going to take far more than planting a few
> trees and switching to CFL bulbs. It demands a fundamental restructuring
> of everything we do from our food choices to agricultural methods to
> industry to military to overseas manufacturing and imports to individual
> cavalier attitudes and wasteful habits. Fixing global warming means big,
> big, big change.
>
> Industry knows this. That is why they’re so hesitant to get behind any
> sort of real action. I think that at some level the American people know
> it too.
>
> What they don't know is, the fundamental restructuring is happening anyway.
> The collapse of the credit system (ref ) and the end of the oil age are
> forcing our hands. Already significant business and government and
> individual decisions are being made for budgetary reasons.
>
> We must be candid about the magnitude of change -- AND what changes will
> need to be made. For example, we do not have a viable alternative for
> transportation. First, the timeline is too short: we aren't going to be
> able to replace 256 million vehicles with electric cars and trucks in time
> for the global warming pollution reduction goals. And when approximately
> half a vehicle's lifetime consumption of oil is in its manufacturing
> process, peak oil says we aren't going to be able to replace that fleet.
> Plus economic woes say that most drivers won't be able to afford the change
> to cleaner technologies. Thus peak oil combined with decarbonizing our
> society dictate the end of the cheap, easy, and effortless transportation
> to which we have grown accustomed over the past 70 or so years. Lack of a
> viable liquid fuel replacement also means the airline industry is dead (ref
> ). So is globalization.
>
> Changing our transportation structure to this magnitude means massive
> changes in our social structures. Suddenly everything -- the bulk of our
> food, clothing, heating fuels, building materials -- will need to come from
> much more nearby and local sources.
>
> Since we've gradually outsourced most of our hard goods manufacturing
> overseas, and we import our food stuffs based upon global resources, we are
> going to have to rebuild local tooling and local skill base. (In this
> respect, the Global Work Day concept is a phenomenal approach.) "Jobs" in
> this post-petroleum, decarbonized future will -- I believe -- look much
> more like small businesses, local craftsmen, and urban agriculture than
> like the "green jobs" that 1Sky and others are touting. (more [pdf])
>
> Local means customized to the individual area's resources and
> circumstances. That’s a polar opposite to the "one size fits all" or "big
> box" approach which has built the massive corporate system. The big
> powerful corporate way won't work in this new low-transportation future.
> Thus the age of the corporate employer is probably ending as well.
>
> Thus when we say "decarbonize society" and "reduce global warming pollution
> at least 80% by 2050" we must be candid that all this restructuring -- in
> the midst of the early stages of a Depression -- is behind the statement.
> Yes, it is urgent and we must begin it now. No, business-as-usual isn't
> possible (peak oil and the end of easy credit have already wiped that
> away). Yes, it is inevitable. And that inevitability -- together with
> concrete action steps for building the new decarbonized, post-petroleum
> society -- must become part of the How To which is broadcast with every
> 1Sky blast and at every Global Work Party. (my “How To Get to 350ppm”)
>
> No, it doesn't need to be grim. The Transition movement is a grassroots
> movement (your Lesson #1) which is active and growing in many towns and
> cities worldwide including an increasing number of U.S. sites. Transition
> initiatives are groups of people who are already examining the tri-fold
> crisis of peak oil + climate change + economic contraction and figuring out
> what to do about it -- together. They're raising citizen awareness of all
> of this stuff I've mentioned. They're studying what their local community
> has as far as post-petroleum resource and skills. They're making plans.
> They're helping each other learn the skills and put in place the tools of
> powerdown. And they're having a lot of fun.
>
> The Transition movement asserts that the future with less oil could be
> better than the present, but only if we engage in designing this transition
> with creativity and imagination. And it asserts that this transition time
> -- the time period of changing over from the mess we have now to those
> decarbonized post-petroleum ways -- contains the potential for an economic,
> cultural, and social renaissance the likes of which we have never seen.
>
> This too -- this exhilaration, this sense of adventure, ingenuity, and
> exploration -- must also be part of what we deliver as we sell the message
> of urgency and the need for legislation to the American people and their
> political representatives.
>
> Big change is coming, like it or not. Peak oil and economic collapse are
> seeing to that. It's up to us whether we'll postpone proactive response
> until the only remaining avenue is victimhood, or whether we'll start now
> to pave the way to a clean, bright, productive future.
>
> Sincerely,
> Joanne Poyourow
> initiator of Transition Los Angeles
> http://transitionus.org/blog/global-warming-how-do-we-move-forward
>
>
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