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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Livingontheland] "Global starvation imminent as US faces crop failure" - comment by Jan Lundberg
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2009 19:41:24 -0600


"Global starvation imminent as US faces crop failure" - comment by Jan
Lundberg
by Marc Davis
23 August 2009
http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=516&Itemid=1

Editor's commentary:

The above headline and first sentences of a recent report from
CommodityOnline.com grab one's attention: "The world faces 'mass starvation'
following North America's next major crop failure. And it could even happen
before year's end."

World leaders and the corporate media don't appreciate the role of petroleum
in food production and distribution. On top of that typical error in the
report, several other contradictions make for a jaw-dropping reading
experience. Such as, meet the meat-caused grain strain by growing more grain.
How? more fertilizer.

One would think it's easier for top authorities to warn of petroleum
dependency than to predict famine based on climate change and farming-sector
failures from the financial meltdown that began last autumn. No.

An indication of how petroleum is separated from agriculture in the minds of
top commodity analysts, such as Don Coxe of the Coxe Commodity Strategy Fund:
"the next food crisis -- when it comes -- will be a bigger shock than $150
oil." [June 2009, from story below] Coxe was General Counsel for the Canadian
Federation of Agriculture, but one has to wonder what he ever learned about
petroleum. His interview is the basis of the featured story below.

The article is still an eye-opener for many who have ignored ecology: "In
recent years, North America has been blessed with ideal weather conditions
for crop cultivation, leading to bumper harvests, Coxe says. But he believes
that climate change will soon lead to a trend towards shorter dry cycles,
beginning maybe as early as this fall, which will exacerbate a supply-demand
squeeze. 'We’ve been incredibly lucky with the weather up to this point... In
fact, the major inflation of the 1970s was driven more by food than by oil.'"

But Coxe shows he is no Lester Brown: "Sadly, this scenario could have been
avoided had successive North America’s governments not weakened the farming
industry with too much political interference, he suggests." -- as if the
solution is to continue to try to produce more and more food for more and
more people, when resource constraints intensify. Don't expect a reporter or
editor to look into this big picture, for what profit is there for the media
corporations' main constituency of fellow corporations?

The report below does broach the topic of overpopulation -- "the onset of a
global population explosion in emerging economies" -- but not in North
America. To give some more credit, Don Coxe is acknowledging the high demand
on grain from meat consumption. Yet, he wants to "ramp-up crop production.
Especially crops like corn and soybeans, which are the best forms of
livestock feed for producing animal protein." How? Though a "long-overdue
doubling of fertilizer applications."

Coxe does stand out from his class that never points out that large-scale
agriculture is unsustainable from the standpoint of losing top soil. He
mentioned "a greater societal emphasis on preserving and nurturing the
world’s arable land." Regardless, Coxe's expertise is lauded for one reason:
money talks -- he is credited with managing the best-performing mutual fund
in the U.S., Harris Investment Management, as recently as 2005. That's not a
job that requires you pay attention to dwindling aquifers, for example. - JL

Global starvation imminent as US faces crop failure
June 19, 2009
By Marc Davis

The world faces “mass starvation” following North America’s next major crop
failure. And it could even happen before year’s end. So says Chicago-based
Don Coxe, who is one of the world’s leading experts on agricultural
commodities, so much so that Canada’s renowned BMO Financial Group named the
fund after him.

Climate change will cause shorter crop growing seasons and the world’s
under-developed farming sector is ill-prepared to make up for the shortfall,
Coxe says. He has been following the farming industry for many years and
benefits from more than 35 years of institutional investment experience in
Canada and the U.S. This includes managing the best-performing mutual fund in
the U.S., Harris Investment Management, as recently as 2005.

In particular, an imminent crop failure in North America will have
particularly dire consequences for major overseas markets that are highly
reliant on U.S. crop imports, Coxe cautions. Sadly, this scenario could have
been avoided had successive North America’s governments not weakened the
farming industry with too much political interference, he suggests.

“We’ve got a situation where there has been no incentive to allocate
significant new capital to agriculture or to develop new technologies to
dramatically expand crop output. We’ve got complacency,” he told BNW News
Wire. “So for those reasons I believe the next food crisis -- when it comes
-- will be a bigger shock than $150 oil.”

As the key strategist for the Coxe Commodity Strategy Fund (TSX: COX.UN), he
has an astute understanding of the mounting challenges that the farming
industry has contended with in recent years. Prior to entering the investment
business, he served as General Manager for the Ontario Federation of
Agriculture and General Counsel for the Canadian Federation of Agriculture.

He notes that farmers, not just in North America, but the world over are
still reeling from the global economic meltdown and have consequently
curtailed their output. Thus, the inauspicious prospect of a drop in global
food production this year -- the first annual dip in living memory -- means
that farmers will not be able to keep pace with current grain demand.

“And when we have the first serious crop failure, which will happen, we will
then have a full-blown food crisis, which we will not be able to get out of
because we will still be struggling to catch up (as a result of diminished
crop yields),” he says.

Furthermore, the prospect of a near-term global food crisis has been
exacerbated by a surge in demand for high-quality protein (meat) in emerging
super-economies such as China and India, Coxe says. This means that
burgeoning global demand for crop staples is already beginning to outstrip
supply.

“During this decade, the annual increase in hectares of global cultivated
farmland has been roughly 1.5 per cent, at a time global demand for grains
and soybeans has been growing at double that rate,” he says. “We will be
dealing with mass starvation with the first serious crop failure. It could
happen as early as this fall if for instance we have a killing freeze in Iowa
in August.”

In recent years, North America has been blessed with ideal weather conditions
for crop cultivation, leading to bumper harvests, Coxe says. But he believes
that climate change will soon lead to a trend towards shorter dry cycles,
beginning maybe as early as this fall, which will exacerbate a supply-demand
squeeze.

“We’ve been incredibly lucky with the weather up to this point. But if you
cut the growing cycle by four weeks, that will dramatically reduce yields,”
he warns. “People assume that the good times will last forever. There’s a
sense that food has always been readily available and that it will always be
there.”

Yet, we only need to look as far a back as the mid 1970s to an era when food
staples suddenly became far less plentiful due to poor crop yields resulting
from adverse weather, he says.

“There were major food surpluses going into that era. Yet, they were gone so
fast,” he adds. “In fact, the major inflation of the 1970s was driven more by
food than by oil.”

If society is to avoid a far worse situation than the food crisis of the
1970s, especially with the onset of a global population explosion in emerging
economies, then the world has to dramatically ramp-up crop production.
Especially crops like corn and soybeans, which are the best forms of
livestock feed for producing animal protein, he adds.

Hence, the world can no longer settle for anything less than optimal crop
yields, which requires exponential growth in fertilizer applications, he
says. Yet, the under-application of such crucial nutrients, particularly
indispensable potash-based fertilizers, has been a pronounced problem for
decades in the world’s most populous nations such as China, India and
Malaysia.

Without the long-overdue doubling of fertilizer applications, as well as a
greater societal emphasis on preserving and nurturing the world’s arable
land, the next global food shortage promises to be both pronounced and
prolonged. And that could topple governments and destabilize the world’s
political order, Coxe further warns.

An ominous omen of humanity’s first great challenge of the new millennium
came just last year. This was when a short-lived spike in the price of food
staples led to widespread hunger and ensuing political unrest in some
emerging economies, including food riots.

(Marc Davis is Managing Editor, BNW Business News Wire)
Original article: commodityonline.com

* * * * *

Further reading:

What about petrochemical pesticides' sustainability? For the health aspect,
see "Debating How Much Weed Killer Is Safe in Your Water Glass" (part of the
New York Times' Toxic Waters series), by Charles Duhigg, August 22, 2009:
nytimes.com

"Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production" by Eric deCarbonnel, 18
February 2009:
culturechange.org






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