Healthy soil and sustainable growing

["TradingPostPaul" <tradingpost@riseup.net>]

Food riots of the 21st century
http://www.mg.co.za/articledirect.aspx?area=/insight/+insight__internation

al/&articleId=328941
06 Jan 2008 23:59

The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years
as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in
50 years, according to one of the world’s leading agricultural
researchers. Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and
onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability
to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple
foods, warned Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy
Research Institute. The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing
nations has combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United
States and Europe to transform the global food situation. After decades of
expanding crop yields and falling food prices, the past year has seen a
sharp rise in the cost of wheat, rice, corn, soya and dairy products.
“Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it
produces for five years now. Stocks of grain and of rice, wheat and maize
are down at levels not seen since the early 1980s,” said Von Braun, whose
organisation is the world’s largest alliance of agricultural researchers,
economists and policy experts. So far, crises have been averted because
states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change
because China, in particular, has run down its supplies. “Over the next
12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large consuming
nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international
markets to bid up prices to unusual levels,” Von Braun warned ahead of a
speech to the institute’s AGM in Beijing. Thanks to its manufacturing
prowess China has huge foreign exchange reserves and could buy the global
food crop several times over. But its consumers are already feeling the
cost of food inflation. According to the local media three shoppers died
last month in a stampede at a supermarket in Chongqing that was offering
cheap rapeseed oil. The threat of instability has prompted Prime Minister
Wen Jiabao to make the fight against food price rises one of his
government’s priorities. So far it seems a losing battle. Economic growth
-- estimated at 11,5% in the first nine months of the year -- has made
Chinese consumers wealthier, while urbanisation and globalisation has
changed their diet. In October the government announced pork prices were up
more than 50%, vegetables 30% and cooking oil 34% compared with the year
before. The knock-on is felt across the world. In rich nations it means a
few more cents for breakfast cereal in the short term and a slightly higher
cost for toys, clothes and other Chinese goods. But for the world’s
poorest communities the rises will have a potentially devastating effect.
Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tons of food aid -- a severe
blow to the pride of a country that had been trying to wean itself off
international assistance. Bangladeshi officials say the price of cooking
oil, of which it imports 1,2-million tons a year, has almost tripled in the
past two years because it is now valued as an alternative to diesel oil.
More worryingly, their main staple of rice is hard to buy at any price
because India, Vietnam and Ukraine have cut exports. Added to this are the
pressures caused by global warming, which have been blamed for the droughts
that damaged crops in Australia this year. The social tensions caused by
rising food prices are already evident, says Von Braun. “The first sign
was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70 000 took to the streets. I
think that was only the beginning -- there will be more,” said Von Braun.
“For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk
comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy
will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will
bid up the world market.” Von Braun called on Europe to reconsider its
biofuel policies, to provide more aid to poor nations, to keep markets open
and to boost production. -- © Guardian News & Media Ltd 2007