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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@gilanet.com>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Livingontheland] The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
  • Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 22:05:16 -0600

http://www.hermeticinstitute.org

The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the
Twenty-First Century

By James Howard Kunstler
Atlantic Monthly Press New York, New York
Copyright 2005 307 pages
Footnotes Bibliographical References Hardcover $23.00

Some books are critical to our earthly path, to where we are going
as individuals, communities, and even the world. James Howard
Kunstler's book, The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging
Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, is such a book. If you
are going to read one non-fiction book this summer as you motor to
the beach, or head to the mountains, this should be the one.

Despite its overwhelming title, Long Emergency is a call to
action, a book of human possibility. One might even call it
radical optimism born in the hard reality of facts and figures and
not the usual fatalistic quasi-Marxist, anti-Western,
environmental doom and gloom we have become accustomed to over the
years. It is also not Y2K revisited. Chicken Little telling us
that the sky is falling (again). Instead, Long Emergency is a
sober, solid, fact-filled look at the intricacies of the modern
industrial state and its vulnerability to the very environments in
which it exists. In a word, Long Emergency is about energy -
petrochemicals to be exact. It is no secret that the United States
and the industrialized countries of Europe and Asia are dependent
on a thin lifeline of energy to run their economies, sustain their
standards of living, in fact, to exist at all as the nation states
we recognize.

Kunstler describes the intricate line of interconnecting events
that allow the average American consumer to eat a salad either
From a McDonald's drive-through, or their local grocery store, and
how it essentially has traveled 6,000 miles or more to get to
them. The same is said about a variety of necessities and luxuries
we have grown accustomed to, and in doing so, sacrificed our
future for short-term savings as discount shoppers. Unfortunately,
all of this relies on a diminishing resource - oil, and plenty of
it.

For those of you who drive 30 minutes or more one-way to work each
day (a common event in the United States), and have noticed the
bite of $2.25 to $3.50 a gallon is taking out of your pocket,
don't expect it to get better. More importantly, there are three
things you need to know:

1. On a world wide level oil is being used at a faster rate than
new sources of it are being found.

2. There is no foreseeable substitute for oil on the technological
horizon.

3. Oil is a part of everything we use, eat, watch, wear, and use
as pharmaceuticals. Without high quantities of high quality oil at
an affordable price, industrial life as we know it would not
exist.

Now, even if you don't buy Point One, commonly known as 'Peak
Oil,' and believe that more oil will be found, The Long Emergency
will educate you in simple, clear language, on the series of
historical and economic events that have brought us to our current
level of political involvement in the Middle East and elsewhere.
This is also done in a balanced and impartial manner, free of the
usual self-righteous indignation found in similar books working
with the advantage of hindsight.

If you have faith that at some point oil can be synthetically
produced or replaced with alternative energy sources read again
Point Two. So far, there are no viable substitutes. Based on
current technological limitations Kunstler demonstrates that the
current hype around solar, hydrogen, wind, and others much touted
ideas are political grandstanding, and admits that unfortunately,
nuclear energy is the only viable short term, band-aid, partial
solution available, and this is only limited to electricity
generation. Now, there maybe solutions in the future, but right
now when we need it, there are none; and this is the important
part, even if there is plenty of oil waiting to be found, and/or
we can "tech" our way out of the problem, we still need to deal
with global warming, and environmental degradation as a result of
such a large-scale use of petrochemicals and the massive 6.3
billion people they support.

New Age doom and gloomers will be pleased to know that there are
two camps on the issue of human survival in a post-cheap oil age:
one that embraces the theory of 'die off' in which humanity is
seen more or less as a parasite and gets its just deserts, and
'die down' which say, "OK, continue on the path you're going but
history shows that human populations often suddenly drop as a
result of political shifts, as well as environmental. Some people,
and in large numbers, will die." Die Down recognizes that in a
world where demand is high, populations abundant, and supply
limited, the potential for open conflict is always just below the
surface.

Kunstler admittedly follows the Die Down camp, as his projections
suggest a long, slow, even agonizing decay of civilization as we
know it, if we continue to acting like 'business as usual.'
Confident in the human ability to adapt to new environments,
Kunstler suggests that given the overwhelming evidence for Peak
Oil, and the potential environmental decay even if it is not true,
that the United States needs to, and can, immediately begin the
task of rebuilding its small towns, neighborhood shopping
districts, farm locally, and consciously and willfully deconstruct
the massive industrial-social-economic complex that has been build
over the last sixty years and is dependent on a vanishing supply
of cheap energy. It is a big dream, but then so was the idea of
the American Revolution or defeating the Axis as well.

Be aware, The Long Emergency is not a pleasant read. You will find
every reason possible to ignore and simply deny the message it
presents. You will however not be the same after having read it.
Each time you turn your car on, fill your tank, or shop at a
big-box discount store for inexpensive imports that you don't
really need or want, you'll hear Kunstler's words in the back of
your mind. Much of what he says bears a similarity in tone to the
Traditionalist wing of modern esotericism, and while I doubt
Kunstler is a follower of Julius Evola, compare their thoughts on
humanity's future:

"Even though it may be destined to disappear, modern
civilization is certainly not the first to become extinct, nor is
it the one after which none will follow..only the ignorance of
modern man has induced him to believe that his civilization, which
is characterized by the deepest roots in the temporal and
contingent element, will enjoy a different and privileged fate." -
Revolt Against the Modern World by Julius Evloa

"The Long Emergency is going to be a tremendous trauma for the
human race. It is likely to entail political turbulence every bit
as extreme as the economic conditions that prompt it. We will not
believe that two-hundred years of modernity can be brought to its
knees by a worldwide power shortage. The prospect is so grim that
some individuals and perhaps even some groups (as in nations) may
develop all the symptoms of suicidal depression.The survivors will
have to cultivate a religion of hope, that is, a deep and
comprehensive belief that humanity is worth carrying on." - The
Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

However, if each of us picks up the gauntlet, and accept the
challenge presented, it is possible to turn The Long Emergency
into a brighter, quieter, and more peaceful future for us all. But
to do it, we must each take responsibility for our actions today,
and their effects on tomorrow. If we don't, the opening phases of
the Age of Aquarius will be a cold, dark age of Saturn, and not
the bright Uranian dreams of freedom so many desire.

Review by Mark Stavish, www.hermeticinstitute.org. Copyright 2005.

This review may be reproduced and cross-posted as long as the text
and copyright notice remain intact.





  • [Livingontheland] The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, Tradingpost, 05/10/2005

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