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The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"
http://deconsumption.typepad.com/deconsumption/2005/03/the_most_import.html
By Steven Lagavulin March 16, 2005

"When nothing happens for a long time, people begin to assume that  
nothing ever happens. But, sooner or later, something always happens."  
-- Steven Lagavulin

There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is  
sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the  
understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the  
state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion  
rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but  
rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that the issue  
no longer even important.

For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp,  
because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the  
dots' of world/political events occurring over just the past few  
months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any  
reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the  
world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As  
such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so  
are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable  
course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see  
it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical  
"Peak Year" may have been reached.

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then  
all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The  
commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by  
anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying  
them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is  
the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media  
outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical  
purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and vicious  
"resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will  
begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging /  
hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals.  
This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average  
Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will  
experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a  
short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner  
gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic  
deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be  
available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil,  
critical government and commercial uses, public transportation,  
transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that  
you can imagine just as well as I....

If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm  
talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts  
have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already  
on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that  
the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's  
bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the  
issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in  
place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger  
finger that's going to set the whole thing off.

This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I  
believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself  
is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or  
disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the  
world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate  
resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions,  
blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which  
should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the  
curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the  
Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the  
situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets'  
have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to  
increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the  
mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it  
could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then  
seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams.

Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil  
depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the  
oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who  
know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote)  
"Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the  
dots....
The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over  
who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you  
to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events  
and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin  
paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events).  
Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the  
countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread  
the situation. Verify everything for yourself.

I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this  
to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the  
future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to  
communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us.  
We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer  
hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that  
somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never  
going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the  
global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of  
these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just  
as on the world stage, whomever does not act now will soon find they  
have already lost the game.

So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the  
course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to  
work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by  
building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly,  
and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just  
grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is  
going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not  
today....

Also, those who secretly long for the coming collapse will be in for a  
shock. The initial oil shortage, when it does come, will certainly be a  
serious inconvenience, but the events which proceed after that are  
going to humble us all to the core.

Admittedly, I don't believe that any one of us can voluntarily change  
events of this magnitude...but I do think we have an obligation to live