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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@gilanet.com>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Livingontheland] The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production
  • Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 00:24:09 -0700


504. The US Department of Energy addresses Peak Oil
The US Department of Energy has submitted the following article for
inclusion in this Newsletter

The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production
Summary of an Analysis, February 8, 2005

Full report at http://216.187.75.220/newsletter51.pdf

A recently completed study for the U.S. Department of Energy analyzed
viable technologies to mitigate oil short-ages associated with the upcoming
peaking of world oil production.1 Commercial or near-commercial options
include improved vehicle fuel efficiency, enhanced conventional oil
recovery, and the production of substitute fuels. While research and
development on other options could be important, their commercial success
is by no means as-sured, and none offer near-term solutions.
Improved fuel efficiency in the world’s transportation sector will be a
critical element in the long-term reduction of liquid fuel consumption,
however, the scale of effort required will inherently take time and be very
expensive. For example, the U.S. has a fleet of over 200 million
automobiles, vans, pick-ups, and SUVs. Replacement of just half with higher
efficiency models will require at least 15 years at a cost of over two
trillion dollars for the U.S. alone. Similar conclusions generally apply
worldwide.
Commercial and near-commercial options for mitigating the decline of
conventional oil production include: 1) Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), which
can help moderate oil production declines from older conventional oil
fields; 2) Heavy oil/oil sands, a large resource of lower grade oils, now
produced primarily in Canada and Venezuela; 3) Coal liquefaction, an
established technique for producing clean substitute fuels from the
world’s abundant coal reserves; and 4) Clean substitute fuels produced
from remote natural gas.
For the foreseeable future, electricity-producing technologies, e.g.,
nuclear and solar energy, cannot substitute for liquid fuels in most
transportation applications. Someday, electric cars may be practical, but
decades will be required before they achieve significant market penetration
and impact world oil consumption. And no one has yet defined viable options
for powering heavy trucks or airplanes with electricity.
To explore how these technologies might contribute, three alternative
mitigation scenarios were analyzed: One where action is initiated when
peaking occurs, a second where action is assumed to start 10 years before
peaking, and a third where action is assumed to start 20 years before
peaking.
Estimates of the possible contributions of each mitigation option were
developed, based on crash program imple-mentation. Crash programs represent
the fastest possible implementation - the best case. In practical terms,
real-world action is certain to be slower.
Analysis of the simultaneous implementation of all of the options showed
that an impact of roughly 25 million barrels per day might be possible 15
years after initiation. Because conventional oil production decline will
start at the time of peaking, crash program mitigation inherently cannot
avert massive shortages unless it is initiated well in advance of peaking.
Specifically,
* Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating
crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel
deficit for two decades or longer.






  • [Livingontheland] The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production, Tradingpost, 03/03/2005

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