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[Ilan Volow <listboy AT clarux.com>]

On Thursday, November 13, 2003, at 01:44  AM, Alan MacHett wrote:

> ...as in the sort of pipe-dream technology ideas one scribbles onto a 
> napkin.
>
> Everyone has their "wouldn't it be cool if..." ideas.  Popular culture 
> has
> displayed them regularly for decades and great minds since the Greeks 
> and
> Romans have been dreaming them as well.
>
> What determines that a fantasy idea becomes a reality?

If it either fulfills some need that isn't currently being met or takes 
something that was an enormous pain in the ass and makes it far less of 
a pain in the ass.

In the first instance, something like e-mail that fulfilled the need 
for communication that is instant (faster than sending a letter) yet 
does not require simultaneous communication (like talking on the phone).

In the latter case, something like the cotton gin, which took the 
arduous and painful task of picking out cotton seeds for hours on end 
and reduced it to a couple of minutes of simple cranking.

I think it can pretty much be stated that every technology that is seen 
as cool by geeks and is seen as an ends will stay on the napkin where 
it belongs. Any technology that is seen as useful by normal people and 
is seen as a means and not as an end what will migrate from its napkin 
to reality.


--Ilan

--
Ilan Volow
Ergonomica Auctorita Illico!