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["Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

You most read all they way to the end to understand that this analysis is
better than average.

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/09/fed-watch-short.htm
l

 

"To arrive at a truly bad outcome, the US needs
<http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/07/so-true/lmore-3769>  to be cut off
from foreign financing. Otherwise, the economy will muddle along at anemic
growth rates until a broad restructuring away from consumer dependent growth
is complete."

 

"If you are hoping for a quick resolution to the challenges facing the US
economy, be prepared to be disappointed. Our bubble-dependent growth is out
of bubbles, leaving a lengthy restructuring process ahead that will fall
particularly hard on households. Expect persistent weakness in economic
activity, but that weakness still falls short of apocalyptic. The Fed is
charting a course between excessive job loss and excessive inflation during
this adjustment; given the precarious state of the economy, balancing
between these two outcomes, a divergence of opinion on the FOMC is
understandable. To get to an apocalyptic scenario, policymakers need to run
out of options. And as long as the US Treasury can float debt at 4% - or 5%,
or 6% - policymakers are not out of options."

 

Don Bowen  KI6DIU

http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html