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Turkey eyes Iraq poll with concern
by Jonathan Gorvett
Friday 28 January 2005 7:46 PM GMT

* Turkey's General Basbug: Iraq's political integrity could be at risk *

*

Turkey's leaders have been voicing fears this week that Sunday's Iraqi 
elections may have dire consequences for stability across their southern 
border.

*

The deputy chief of staff of the country's powerful military, General 
Ilker Basbug, said on Wednesday that developments could threaten the 
territorial and political integrity of Iraq and would pose an important 
security problem for Turkey.

In 2003, after the US-led invasion of Iraq, Turkey had threatened to 
send its troops into the north of the country if it fell under the 
control of Kurdish forces. It only backed down after Washington applied 
strong pressure.

Central to Basbug's anxiety is the city of Kirkuk. Sitting on top of 
some of the world's largest oil fields, the city contains Kurdish, Arab 
and Turkmen populations. The latter are seen by many in Turkey as ethnic 
brethren left behind at the collapse of the Ottoman empire after World 
War I.

Control of the city will be voted on during Sunday's ballot, and Turkey 
fears that Kurdish groups have been deliberately tampering with Kirkuk's 
ethnic balance to secure an overwhelming victory.

*Swinging the vote*

"Hundreds of thousands of Kurds have migrated to Kirkuk to register to 
vote," General Basbug said.

*Turkey fears Kurds deliberately
altered Kirkuk's ethnic balance*

Kurdish groups and the region's government deny any wrongdoing. They 
point out that under Saddam Hussein, a policy of Arabisation in the city 
had led to the expulsion of much of the Kurdish and Turkmen population.

What is happening now, they say, is just these people returning to their 
rightful homes.

"We went to Baghdad and met with US, British and Iraqi government 
officials," Khaned Samih, political adviser to the Kurdistan Regional 
Government in Arbil, said.

"We came up with an agreement that would make sure Kurds could go back 
to Kirkuk and vote. This is now just an internal issue for Iraq."

*Mass migration*

Yet Turkmen groups close to Ankara claim the number of returnees is far 
higher than those who were expelled.

*"Civil war will very
likely break out. This
will have a big effect
on the country's neighbours too"*

Asif Sertturkmen,
Iraqi Turkmen Front

"The number we have for the total expelled by Saddam Hussein is 11,865," 
Asif Sertturkmen of the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) said. "The number who 
have now returned is 110,000. The Kurds keep coming from Iran, Syria and 
other parts of Iraq."

"Civil war will very likely break out," he said. "This will have a big 
effect on the country's neighbours too."

Turkey is concerned about this latter point. One columnist of daily 
newspaper Radikal summed up the fears.

"Northern Iraq is a time-bomb," columnist Cengiz Candar of the daily 
Radikal writes. "And only the US can defuse it."

"Could Turkey just stand back if the Kurds start massacring the Turkmens 
or the Arabs?" he asked.

"Probably not. Obviously, the Kurds seem determined to take over 
Kirkuk - with the support of the US - but this is not acceptable."

*Kurdish support*

Many in Ankara interpreted US Department of State spokesman Richard 
Boucher's declaration this week that disputes over Kirkuk were an 
internal Iraqi matter as backing for the Kurds.

The fear in Turkey is also that a Kurdish victory in the elections will 
be followed by a declaration of independence for the region or a 
referendum on this issue.

"This would create a very dangerous situation," Candar said. "For this 
reason, Turkey wants the status quo preserved - for Iraq to remain a 
single state."

*Turkey already has a big problem
with its own Kurdish population*

This brings up another, less commonly voiced, fear - that an independent 
Kurdish state in northern Iraq would encourage some of Turkey's own 
ethnic Kurds, largely located across the border in southeastern Turkey, 
to voice their own separatist demands.

"Certainly, it would not look good if Turkey ended up fighting the Kurds 
in northern Iraq," Candar says.

Kurdish officials say these fears have been wildly exaggerated.

"Among the Kurdish parties here," Samih said, "there isn't even a hint 
of a hidden agenda. People have a very strong degree of realism. They do 
not want to sacrifice their prosperity by ending up fighting the Turks 
or the US."

*Suspicions*

At the same time, "many here doubt the sincerity of Turkey's concern for 
the Turkmens" according to Samih.

"We never heard any responsible politician in Ankara complaining when 
Saddam Hussein was expelling Turkmens too from Kirkuk," he said. "The 
result is we are suspicious of Turkey's motives in raising this issue now."

*Iraqi Kurds doubt the sincerity of
Ankara's concern for Turkmens*

Some point to Turkish nationalist claims that northern Iraq should be 
part of Turkey. These stem from dissatisfaction with the 1926 settlement 
that rejected Turkish claims to Mosul and granted the territory to the 
British empire.

"If Iraq breaks up into three countries," Candar says, "this might be 
seen here as altering previous legal arrangements over the status of the 
north."

Meanwhile, Kurdish officials say Turkey would do well to ensure 
stability across the border by refraining from intervention - 
particularly if the rest of Iraq fragments after the elections.

"Turkey needs stability in Kurdistan," Samih says, "so the chaos in the 
south will not come here."

*Aljazeera
By Jonathan Gorvett*

You can find this article at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/EDE4C28F-94B9-4E88-B08F-561412E0D0B9.htm 


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