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[tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>]

tvoivozhd---a long way to go, a lot that must be done before Iraq really 
has self-government' It will be interesting to see whether it is secular 
or some version of theocracy with all the intellectual baggage that 
implies. A straw in the wind will be the number of women in government, 
in business and whether they shed the age-old symbols of female oppression.


New York Post <http://www.nypost.com>

AFTER IRAQ'S VOTE

By AMIR TAHERI

*D*ESIGNED to give Iraq a new democratic frame work at local, provincial 
and national levels, today's elections should also confirm the emergence 
of a new leadership in the newly-liberated country.

This emerging leadership will have to develop a national consensus on a 
new government, a permanent constitution and the status of the U.S.-led 
forces present in the country. It will also have to face and ultimately 
defeat determined enemies both at home and abroad: the remnants of 
Saddamism, diehard Islamists and some of Iraq's neighbors — who all, for 
different reasons, do not wish it to become a working democracy.

Some new leaders are former exiles who returned home after liberation, 
others are men and women who spent a good part of their lives under 
Saddamite tyranny.

The Kurds, a fifth of the population, are the only Iraq community still 
led by figures who were around three decades ago. *Massoud Barzani* and 
*Jalal Ta**labani*, the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and 
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, are likely to stay in the limelight 
until a new generation of Kurdish politicians takes shape. The bridge 
between the two is represented by leaders like interim government 
members *Hoshyar **Zibari* and *Barham Salih*.

Most of the new leaders will be Shiites. *Iyad Allawi*, the interim 
prime minister, is likely to emerge as head of the fourth-largest group 
in the National Assembly — not enough support to retain his current 
position. (Though he may serve as a compromise candidate for the rest of 
the year.)

*Ahmad Chalabi*, once the darling of the Pentagon and now a /bete noire/ 
of Washington, is certain to secure a seat in the new Assembly, but 
lacks the support needed to get to the top of Iraqi politics in the 
foreseeable future. He could be a key player in the backroom deals that 
will become a key feature of politics in the new Iraq.

Other, likely more important, players in the new Shiite leadership include:

*Muhammad Hussein Shah**restani* seems to be the leading Shiite 
candidate for prime minister. Once head of Saddam's nuclear project, he 
fled into exile when the despot decided to develop nuclear weapons. 
Returning last year after two decades of exile, he established himself 
as one of the closest political aides of Grand Ayatollah Ali Muhammed 
Sistani.

*Abdul-Aziz Hakim*, 52, the leader of the Supreme Council for the 
Islamic Revolution in Iraq is likely to be strengthened by the 
elections. His group is expected to emerge as the No. 2 Shiite bloc in 
the parliament — where he is tipped to become speaker.

*Ibrahim al-Jaafari*, the leader of the main faction of the Dawa (The 
Call) Party, the largest Shiite political group, could emerge as the 
Shiite bloc's candidate for the presidency.

A new generation of Shiite technocrats look to *Adel Abdel-**Mahdi*, a 
member of the interim government. A French-educated economist, 
Abdel-Mahdi is a contender for the key post of minister of finance.

The most notable Shiite to have openly campaigned for a clearly secular 
system of government is *Hamid Majid **Moussa*, leader of the Iraqi 
Communist Party. He can play a pivotal role in inter-sectarian dialogue 
and compromises.

Despite predictions that Arab Sunnis would boycott the elections and 
reject the democratic system, the leadership emerging in Baghdad 
includes many prominent Sunnis. *Adnan Pachahi*, at 82 the grand old man 
of Iraqi diplomacy, is likely to remain a key player at least in the 
transition period.

But possibly the most effective Arab Sunni leader is likely to be *Ghazi 
al-Yawar*: The incumbent president is likely to be a candidate for the 
post again. As sheik of the Shammar, Iraq's largest tribe that includes 
both Sunnis and Shiites, he could be a figure of reconciliation.

Also likely to remain prominent: Defense Minister *Hazem **al-Shaalan*; 
Minister of Planning *Mahdi al-Hafiz* (who could be the Sunni candidate 
for premiership) and Minister of Power *Iham al-Samaraie*, who is trying 
to create a centrist bloc with help from Allawi.

Today's elections must be regarded as the first step on a long road 
toward the establishment of credible and durable Iraqi democratic 
institutions.

The 275-seat Assembly will act as both a legislature and a panel to 
draft a new constitution. Its main tasks:

* Meet and elect its own officials, including the speaker and his two 
deputies, before March 2005.

* Elect the three members of the presidential council — one president 
and two vice presidents — by mid-April.

* Elect a new prime minister and Cabinet on the recommendation of the 
presidential council, probably by the end of April.

* Draft Iraq's new Constitution by mid-August.

* Put the draft to a referendum by Oct. 15.

* Hold general parliamentary elections by Dec. 15 (provided the 
constitution is approved in the referendum),

* Dissolve itself to make way for the newly elected parliament by Dec. 
31. The new parliament will then appoint a new government.

These tasks are designed not only to institutionalize Iraq's democracy 
but also to train its new leaders in the art of political horse-trading 
— a welcome substitute for the Arab tradition of using violence as the 
main instrument of winning and retaining power.

/Amir Taheri is a member of Be//nador Associates./


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