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[tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>]

You will if the Cuban oil strike is big---remember that Cheney hasn't 
died yet from a heart attack, and his Halliburton owns a big share of 
Bush and Congress.

<http://cuba.tbo.com>

Jan 18, 2005


   Cuban Oil Drilling Could Put U.S. Embargo Over An Economic Barrel

By KEITH EPSTEIN
kepstein AT tampatrib.com <mailto:kepstein AT tampatrib.com>


* WASHINGTON - * Is Cuba on the verge of an oil bonanza that could pump 
financial life into Fidel Castro's regime and soften U.S. trade policy 
toward the island?

If so, new U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez could find himself at the intersection 
of conflicting agendas - as a loyalist to President Bush, who draws 
support from energy interests as well as from anti-Castro Cubans, as a 
hard-line refugee who fled the dictatorship, and as a member of a Senate 
committee that weighs energy development against environmental protection.

Martinez dismisses the possibility.

``It's not necessarily a big find,'' the Florida Republican said last 
week about reports of oil discovered in Cuba-controlled waters.

And even if it is, he said, ``I don't think there's any likelihood 
there'd be any successful pressure on the administration to change 
things.''

Martinez, the nation's first Cuban-American senator, said he would 
oppose any relaxation of trade barriers with his native country. ``I 
definitely would not like to see it,'' he said.

Other Cuba watchers, however, said the hunt for oil barely 100 miles off 
Florida's coastline - depending on the quality and quantity of the find 
- could fuel the easing of barriers by the end of Bush's second term.

Two Canadian energy companies have discovered what Castro claims is 100 
million barrels of oil in waters just off the island's northwestern shores.

Wildcatters from Canada and Spain have been busy in the region where, by 
law, U.S. energy companies cannot drill, explore or even help.

The explorers aren't saying much, at least publicly. But if further work 
yields results, ``the cry from the American Petroleum Institute and 
other actors in Washington will be very loud,'' predicted Jonathan 
Benjamin Alvarado, a Cuba energy specialist and political science 
professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

``The Americans won't want to be on the sidelines as French, Spanish and 
Canadian investors descend on Cuba,'' he said. ``If different oil 
companies like Halliburton make a big enough beef, the president will 
listen - maybe not until the final third of his term, but he will.''

During decades of prohibitions against U.S. trade, Cuba has enlisted 
trading partners from Argentina to Monaco on projects that include 
mining and biotechnology.

Many U.S. companies dislike being deprived of the nearby market. And 
increasingly, Americans have been undermining the ironclad intent of the 
original embargo.

Four years ago, Congress allowed the sale of agricultural products to 
Cuba. Last month, delegations from Alabama, Louisiana and Maine toured 
the island in an attempt to encourage the Castro government to buy their 
agricultural products.

The issue is especially sensitive in Florida, where most Cuban-Americans 
support bans on business with Castro - and support Republican 
politicians such as Bush and Martinez.

In Florida, even Democrats including U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa are 
careful about their positions. Davis has not opposed the trade embargo, 
for instance, even as he has called for ``dialogue'' and lesser 
restrictions on travel to Cuba.

Martinez rejected speculation that oil could be the next U.S. trade 
exception.

``Sen. Martinez may well be correct right now,'' said John Kavulich, 
president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. ``But then, who 
would have expected the tectonic plate shift in public opinion 
subsequent to allowing food and agriculture purchases in 2001?

``The Bush administration has done everything it can, from the 
regulatory standpoint to the bully pulpit, to make food and ag exports 
difficult. But despite everything, exports continue and the bipartisan 
interest level in Congress is high.''

Martinez, as a member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources 
Committee, said his goals include not only maintaining the embargo but 
protecting Florida waters.

Oil drilling off Cuba ``could be potentially a pollution threat to the 
coast of Florida,'' he said. ``We've been very vigilant in Florida to 
maintain the pristine nature of our coastline and not allow drilling. 
It's troubling when a neighboring state might do it.''

Cuba lost Soviet-subsidized oil imports in 1990, and it depends heavily 
on Venezuela for fuel.

One of the Canadian companies involved, Sherritt International, the 
largest foreign oil producer in Cuba, confirmed it had demonstrated a 
1,300-barrel-per-day find near Santa Cruz del Norte.

Repsol YPF of Spain, meanwhile, is drilling in a separate, 
4,132-square-mile tract. The American Association of Petroleum 
Geologists listed the Repsol find as among the most ``significant 
discoveries'' worldwide in 2004.

/ Reporter Keith Epstein can be reached at (202) 662-7673./

*This story can be found at:* http://cuba.tbo.com/cuba/MGBCMHXK34E.html

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