[NAFEX] [SPAM] Early winter?

athagan at atlantic.net athagan at atlantic.net
Mon Sep 25 12:26:50 EDT 2006


It seems our old friend El Nino is paying us a visit again this year
which would explain our early cool spell and lack of rain.  At least
until winter sets in when we'll get more rain than usual.

http://www.agclimate.org/Development/apps/agClimate/controller/perl/agClimate.pl/agClimate.pl?function=climforecast/outlook.html&location=local&type=html&primary=2&major=1

"Partially due to the expected decrease in tropical activity, El Niño
actually brings drier than normal conditions (20% - 30% less rain
than normal) to the Florida, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia
in the months of September and October. Rainfall from tropical
systems is an integral component of the climate of the Southeast in
the fall, which is otherwise fairly dry without the impact of a
tropical system."

El Niño and our winter climate:

"Once the colder months arrive (November - March), the classic El Niño
climate patterns that we are familiar with should establish
themselves and control our weather over that time. El Niño is known
to bring more frequent storms, excessive rainfall, and cooler
temperatures to Florida and coastal Alabama and Georgia. The graphic
below shows that Florida can expect 40% - 60% more rainfall than
normal in the winter months. It is believed that the increase in rain
and cloudiness associated with El Niño causes average temperatures to
be cooler than normal during the winter months. These cooler
temperatures result in greater chill accumulations over the course of
the season. While average temperatures are often cooler, El Niño
actually reduces the risk of severe cold outbreaks in Florida and the
Southeast. The strong subtropical jet stream that is typical of El
Niño acts to "block" the intrusions of cold arctic air masses."

.....Alan.

Quoting Donna &/or Kieran <holycow at cookeville.com>:

> "What do you folks think?  Early winter this year or not?"
> 
> Alan,  I'm a little surprised to hear that you all got so cool so
> early, as 
> it should have gone though Tennessee first.  We did get down close
> to 45 one 
> night, that must be the wave that went on down to you.  In the
> drought in 
> the southeast in the 1980's the jet stream did a lot of weaving
> about and 
> there were no cloudy nights to hold in heat or water in the area to
> mitigate 
> temperature changes.  The droughty conditions hold, but I don't
> regularly 
> see a jetstream map anymore.  Is it snaking up and down much?  In
> the 80's 
> it would be down in the west and up in the east, so it would get
> very warm 
> in the east for weeks on end.  Then suddenly it would flip and an
> "Alberta 
> Clipper" would roar down on the jet stream and freeze our peach
> buds and 
> Florida's citrus.    Donna 
> 
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