[NAFEX] Early Winter?

Jwlehman at aol.com Jwlehman at aol.com
Sat Sep 23 07:32:46 EDT 2006


In a message dated 9/22/2006 12:40:29 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
philstewart24 at yahoo.com writes:

> Unfortunately, Bob Carter, the author, engaged in same classic bad science 
> cherry picking (see, it is fruit related!) to come up with his  numbers. Why? 
> Because his chosen start, 1998, was an El Nino year, with record highs in 
> many places, well
> above even the existing upward trend line.

Dear Phil,

Yes, discussions of global warming/cooling are marginally off topic but since 
anybody growing anything perennial has an interest in climate, I'm going to 
reply including the group at least once. 

In rereading Bob Carter's article I believe he may have a valid point. 
Basically we are looking at many years of global warming. His writing doesn't deny 
the upward trend of any time period before 1998. He wrote that since 1998 the 
trend has been downward. I wouldn't be so brave as to say global warming has 
ended as he did.  1997 may have been a peak year but he wrote, "that for the 
years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a 
slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero)." 
 Was the 1997 
El Nino sufficient to negate any increase during the following 8 years? If he 
said that global warming ended in 1998, maybe even 1998 & 1999 compared to 
1997 I would agree that would be bad science. 

We all know warming has been going on since the last ice age ended 25,000 
years ago, with minor declines along the way such as the 150 (+/-) year decline 
that ended about 1640 (as I recall). During this period the Tams River in 
London River froze over sufficiently that merchants actually set up shops on the 
ice. 

My favorite satellite TV channel is the history channel. I believe it was 
there I saw a program that said the Romans mostly occupied only countries that 
could grow grapes for wine making. England today isn't known for its wine making 
as much at beer and liquor. The reason they put forth was that after the 
Roman occupation the weather cycle cooled such that grapes could no longer be 
grown there for hundreds of years, therefore they turned to making alcoholic 
drinks from grains, i.e., beer and hard liquor. They became very good at it which 
expertise continues today, even though they once again can grow grapes.     

Point is, Carter bloody well may be correct that for now global warming has 
ended. And let us hope for the sake of fruit growing this cycle doesn't 
continue to spiral downward for the next 25,000 years. Not even the next 150 years 
with a return to an ice age similar to the fifteen and sixteen hundreds. Only 
time will tell. 

Jerry 

PS. Perhaps someone could answer this question for me off line. Where did the 
greenhouse gasses come from that started the global warming 25,000 years ago? 
 Are greenhouse gasses the main ingredient?   
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