[NAFEX] Early Winter?
Jwlehman at aol.com
Jwlehman at aol.com
Sat Sep 23 07:32:46 EDT 2006
In a message dated 9/22/2006 12:40:29 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
philstewart24 at yahoo.com writes:
> Unfortunately, Bob Carter, the author, engaged in same classic bad science
> cherry picking (see, it is fruit related!) to come up with his numbers. Why?
> Because his chosen start, 1998, was an El Nino year, with record highs in
> many places, well
> above even the existing upward trend line.
Yes, discussions of global warming/cooling are marginally off topic but since
anybody growing anything perennial has an interest in climate, I'm going to
reply including the group at least once.
In rereading Bob Carter's article I believe he may have a valid point.
Basically we are looking at many years of global warming. His writing doesn't deny
the upward trend of any time period before 1998. He wrote that since 1998 the
trend has been downward. I wouldn't be so brave as to say global warming has
ended as he did. 1997 may have been a peak year but he wrote, "that for the
years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a
slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero)."
Was the 1997
El Nino sufficient to negate any increase during the following 8 years? If he
said that global warming ended in 1998, maybe even 1998 & 1999 compared to
1997 I would agree that would be bad science.
We all know warming has been going on since the last ice age ended 25,000
years ago, with minor declines along the way such as the 150 (+/-) year decline
that ended about 1640 (as I recall). During this period the Tams River in
London River froze over sufficiently that merchants actually set up shops on the
My favorite satellite TV channel is the history channel. I believe it was
there I saw a program that said the Romans mostly occupied only countries that
could grow grapes for wine making. England today isn't known for its wine making
as much at beer and liquor. The reason they put forth was that after the
Roman occupation the weather cycle cooled such that grapes could no longer be
grown there for hundreds of years, therefore they turned to making alcoholic
drinks from grains, i.e., beer and hard liquor. They became very good at it which
expertise continues today, even though they once again can grow grapes.
Point is, Carter bloody well may be correct that for now global warming has
ended. And let us hope for the sake of fruit growing this cycle doesn't
continue to spiral downward for the next 25,000 years. Not even the next 150 years
with a return to an ice age similar to the fifteen and sixteen hundreds. Only
time will tell.
PS. Perhaps someone could answer this question for me off line. Where did the
greenhouse gasses come from that started the global warming 25,000 years ago?
Are greenhouse gasses the main ingredient?
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