[nafex] Re: Experts Was (Apple Recommendations)

jhecksel at voyager.net jhecksel at voyager.net
Thu Sep 28 21:07:10 EDT 2000



fluffy bunny wrote:
>
> 
> Or the amount of money you spend marketing an expert, or how much
> marketing effort the expend creating an illusion, or how much marketing
> effort the institution/association/affiliation extends in promoting their
> designation for an "expert".

Paul Slovic, a Prof of Pschology at one of the Oregon universities (the
one in Eugene) wrote a fine article about the value of "expert" advice
vs. "novice" advice.  He was writing about finacial advice but his
conclusions ring true regardless of the venue.

Novices admit that they only look at three or four key variables and
then render a somewhat reliable judgment.  Experts admit that they look
at over twenty variables and render better judgments.

A hard-core, linear regression analysis by Slovic showed that the
novices accurately described their decision making process.  They really
did take only three or four variables into account and rendered a
somewhat reliable judgment.  The same analysis also showed that the
"experts" used the same three or four variables and used the remaining
+15 to validate their initial assessment.  Their judgments proved to be
no more reliable than the novices because they were the same beneath the
fluff (sorry FB).

> 
> 
> One possible interpretation of this would be that most people are sheep,
> and look to experts that generally are no more qualified to lead then
> they are, other than the fact that they have a proclivity toward
> leadership.
> 

Slovic's conclusion was that Experts, in general, do not render superior
judgments, they render superior (if often unwarrented) confidence.  You
may lose all your money but you will sleep well at night while it
happens.

                                               -Joe Hecksel
                                                Eaton Rapids, Michigan

Wilderness ATs, the best tires you can pop on your SUV!

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