[Homestead] Politics, September polls in all states

tvoivozhd tvoivozd at infionline.net
Sun Sep 26 14:17:11 EDT 2004


Unfortunately not the more-accurate Zogby Polls.



	

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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-arizona16sep16,1,5383339.story>
September 16, 2004
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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-op-stranahan12sep12,1,1101715.story> 

September 12, 2004
Refighting Vietnam in Battleground States 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-florida25aug25,1,6637695.story>
August 25, 2004
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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-nonvoters12aug12,1,7917478.story> 

August 12, 2004
Jobs Grow, Optimism Shrinks in Wisconsin 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-wisconsin9aug09,1,7357564.story> 

August 9, 2004
Kerry, Edwards Face Uphill Battle in Republican-Leaning North Carolina 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-carolina10jul10,1,4309477.story> 

July 10, 2004
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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-polling22jun22,1,7677099.story>
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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-swings29may29,1,161138.story>
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<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-nevada6may06,1,780823.story>
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State poll data summarized from PollingReport.com 
<http://www.pollingreport.com>

Following the polls on this page:
. Methodology 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#polldetails> 
for polls and map colors.
. Nader and third-party 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nader> 
ballot status
 
. Electoral Vote Changes 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Electoral> 
between 2000 and 2004
. About PollingReport.com 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#PollingReport.com> 
and comment link
 
How the States Line Up in Latest Polls:

Bush:
Alabama
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Alabama>Alaska
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Alaska>*Arizona
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Arizona>Colorado
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Colorado>Georgia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Georgia>Indiana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Indiana>Idaho
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Idaho>Kansas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Kansas>Kentucky
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Kentucky>Mississippi
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Mississippi>Montana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Montana>Nebraska
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nebraska>North 
Dakota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#North%20Dakota>Oklahoma
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Oklahoma>South 
Carolina
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#South%20Carolina>South 
Dakota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#South%20Dakota>Tennessee
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Tennessee>Texas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Texas>Utah
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Utah>*Wisconsin
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wisconsin>Wyoming
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wyoming>
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Wyoming> 
	Swing:
*Arkansas
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Arkansas>*Florida
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Florida>*Iowa
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Iowa>Louisiana
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Louisiana>*Maine
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Maine>*Michigan
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Michigan>*Minnesota
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Minnesota>*Missouri
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Missouri>New 
Jersey
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Jersey>*New 
Hampshire
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Hampshire>*New 
Mexico
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20Mexico>*Nevada
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Nevada>North 
Carolina
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#North%20Carolina>*Ohio
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Ohio>*Oregon
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Oregon>*Pennsylvania
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Pennsylvania>Virginia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Virginia>*Washington
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Washington>*West 
Virginia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#West%20Virginia>
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#West%20Virginia> 
	Kerry:
California
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#California>Connecticut
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Connecticut>Delaware
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Delaware>District 
of Columbia
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#District%20of%20Columbia>Hawaii
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Hawaii>Illinois
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Illinois>Maryland
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Maryland>Massachusetts
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Massachusetts>New 
York
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#New%20York>Rhode 
Island
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Rhode%20Island>Vermont
<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Vermont> 

<http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory#Vermont> 

Also: Latest national polls <http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm>


*17 "key battleground" states that were cited by the campaigns and other 
observers earlier this year.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Alabama* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 13-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  54%
Kerry  40%
Nader  1%
Unsure  4%
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*Alaska* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/

Bush  57%
Kerry  30%
Nader  5%
Other  3%
Unsure  6%
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*Arizona* 
/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  50%
Kerry  39%
Other  3%
Unsure  8%
Note: The Nader campaign abandoned a bid to get on the ballot here.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/American Research Group. Sept. 11-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/

Bush  49%
Kerry  43%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%

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*Arkansas* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 15-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/

Bush  48%
Kerry  45%
Other  2%
Unsure  5%

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*California* 
/Los Angeles Times Poll. Sept. 17-21, 2004. N=861 likely voters (MoE ± 3): /
Bush  40%
Kerry  55%
Unsure  5%
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*Colorado* 
/Ciruli Associates for The Pueblo Chieftain. Sept. 14-18, 2004. N=600 
likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  50%
Kerry  38%
Nader  3%
Other  1%
Unsure  8%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Rocky Mountain News/News 4 Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies 
(R). Sept. 12-13, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.3:/

Bush  45%
Kerry  44%
Nader  3%
Unsure  6%
Note: Colorado will vote on a ballot initiative that would split its 
nine electoral votes proportionately. It is written to apply to this 
election, but if passed, there may be a legal battle over that provision.
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*Connecticut* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  39%
Kerry  54%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
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*Delaware* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 13-15, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  41%
Kerry  50%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
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*District of Columbia* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  11%
Kerry  78%
Nader  6%
Other  1%
Unsure  4%
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*Florida* 
/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 18-22, 2004. N=843 registered voters 
statewide (MoE ± 4); 674 likely voters (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  49%
Kerry  46%
Nader   2%
Neither/Other/Unsure  3%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/American Research Group. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  45%
Kerry  46%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
Note: Two earlier September polls taken during hurricanes are not shown.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Research 2000 for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel and The Florida 
Times-Union. Aug. 23-25, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 
(for all likely voters):/
Bush  46%
Kerry  46%
Nader   2%
Unsure  6%
Note: Voters were asked who would they vote for if Nader were not on 
ballot. Net results were Bush 46%, Kerry 47%, Unsure 7%.
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*Georgia* 
/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 3:/
Bush  58%
Kerry  36%
Unsure  6%
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*Hawaii* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 7-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  41%
Kerry  51%
Nader  4%
Unsure  4%
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*Idaho* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 8-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  59%
Kerry  30%
Nader  3%
Other  1%
Unsure  7%
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*Illinois* 
/Research 2000 for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV. Sept. 14-16, 
2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5: /
Bush  39%
Kerry  54%
Unsure  7%
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*Indiana* 
/Research 2000 for The South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. Sept. 7-9, 2004. 
N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/
Bush  54%
Kerry  38%
Unsure  8%
Note: The Nader campaign has abandoned a bid to get on the ballot here.
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*Iowa* 
/Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. Sept. 19-21, 2004. N=602 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters):/

Bush  47%
Kerry  45%
Nader  2%
Unsure  6%

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/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=766 registered voters 
statewide (MoE ± 4); 631 likely voters (MoE ± 5):/

Bush  50%
Kerry  44%
Nader  2%
Unsure  4%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 13-15, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 3:/

Bush  48%
Kerry  46%
Nader  2%
Unsure  4%
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*Kansas* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 15-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  57%
Kerry  35%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
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*Kentucky* 
/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll. Sept. 10-15, 2004. N=657 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 3.8: /

Bush  53%
Kerry  38%
Nader  3%
Unsure  6%
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*Louisiana* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 17-21, 2004. N=600 likely voters (MoE ± 
4): /

Bush  50%
Kerry  42%
Nader  1%
Unsure  7%
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*Maine* 
/Critical Insights. Sept. 10-23, 2004. N=600 adults statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  42%
Kerry  45%
Nader  3%
Unsure  10%

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/American Research Group. Sept. 8-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  44%
Kerry  48%
Nader  4%
Unsure  5%
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*Maryland* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 7-9, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  43%
Kerry  52%
Nader  2%
Unsure  3%
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*Massachusetts* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 10-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  27%
Kerry  64%
Nader  1%
Unsure  7%
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*Michigan* 
/FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/

Bush  44%
Kerry  46%
Nader  1%
Unsure  9%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/EPIC/MRA. Sept. 15-19, 2004. N=610 active voters statewide. MoE ± 4 
(for all active voters):/

Bush  44%
Kerry  48%
Nader  2%
Unsure  6%
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*Minnesota* 
/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 3: /

Bush  45%
Kerry  48%
Nader  2%
Unsure  5%

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/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 11-14, 2004. N=675 likely voters (MoE 
± 4): /

Bush  48%
Kerry  46%
Unsure  6%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. Sept. 7-13, 2004. N=1,035 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 3: /

Bush  41%
Kerry  50%
Nader  1%
Unsure  8%
Note: A July poll showed Libertarian Michael Badnarik with 1%.
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*Missouri* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  50%
Kerry  44%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
Note: Nader not on ballot.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  48%
Kerry  41%
Nader  1%
Unsure  10%
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*Mississippi* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 14-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  51%
Kerry  42%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
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*Montana* 
/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Lee Newspapers. Sept. 20-22, 2004. 
N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  54%
Kerry  36%
Nader  2%
Unsure  8%
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*Nebraska* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 9-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  61%
Kerry  30%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
Note: Nebraska last went Democratic in 1964.
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*Nevada* 
/CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 18-21, 2004. N=535 likely voters (MoE 
± 5):/

Bush  52%
Kerry  43%
Nader  1%
Unsure  4%
Note: Among all registered voters, poll has Bush at 48% and Kerry at 46%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder, MSNBC and The Las 
Vegas Review-Journal. Sept. 13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 4:/

Bush  50%
Kerry  45%
Nader  1%
Unsure  4%

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/American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  47%
Kerry  45%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
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*New Hampshire* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 15-17, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  47%
Kerry  45%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  7%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
13-15, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  49%
Kerry  40%
Nader  3%
Unsure  8%
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*New Jersey* 
/Quinnipiac University Poll. Sept. 16-19, 2004. N=943 registered voters 
statewide (MoE ± 3.2); 672 likely voters (MoE ± 3.8):/

Bush  48%
Kerry  48%
Nader  2%
Wouldn't Vote  2%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 10-12, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 3: /

Bush  43%
Kerry  46%
Nader  2%
Unsure  9%
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*New Mexico* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  44%
Kerry  49%
Nader  1%
Unsure  6%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder, MSNBC, The Santa Fe 
New Mexican, and KOB-TV. Sept. 15-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  47%
Kerry  43%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  7%
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*New York* 
/Siena College Poll. Sept. 20-23, 2004. N=1,121 registered voters 
statewide:/

Bush  31%
Kerry  51%
Nader  2%
Unsure  17%
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*North Carolina* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 13-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  49%
Kerry  44%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
Note: Nader not on ballot
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*North Dakota* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 7-10, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  62%
Kerry  33%
Nader  1%
Unsure  4%
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*Ohio* 
/FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/

Bush  48%
Kerry  44%
Nader  2%
Unsure  6%

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/American Research Group. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  48%
Kerry  46%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll. Sept. 12-18, 2004. N=456 likely 
voters statewide. MoE ± 4.6 (for all likely voters):/

Bush  54%
Kerry  43%
Nader  2%
Unsure  1%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
14-15, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  49%
Kerry  42%
Nader  2%
Unsure  7%
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*Oklahoma* 
/Wilson Research Strategies (R) for KWTV. Sept. 17-19, 2004. N=500 
likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.4:/

Bush  64%
Kerry  24%
Unsure  13%
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*Oregon* 
/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  47%
Kerry  43%
Nader 1%
Unsure  9%

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/American Research Group. Sept. 10-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  45%
Kerry  47%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
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*Pennsylvania* 
/FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 21-22, 2004. N=800 likely voters 
statewide. MoE ± 3.5:/

Bush  45%
Kerry  48%
Nader 1%
Unsure  6%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
14-16, 2004. N=624 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  44%
Kerry  45%
Nader 1%
Unsure  10%
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*Rhode Island* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 11-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  30%
Kerry  58%
Nader  4%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
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* South Carolina* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  52%
Kerry  40%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  7%
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*South Dakota* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 8-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  58%
Kerry  39%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  2%
Note: South Dakota last went Democratic in 1964
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*Tennessee* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 16-18, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  50%
Kerry  43%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
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*Texas* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 16-20, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  58%
Kerry  36%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  5%
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*Utah* 
/Dan Jones & Associates for The Deseret News and KSL-TV. Sept. 6-9, 
2004. N=915 voters statewide. MoE ± 3.3:/

Bush  65%
Kerry  25%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
Note: Utah last went Democratic in 1964
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*Vermont* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 9-12, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  40%
Kerry  50%
Nader  4%
Unsure  7%
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*Virginia* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 12-14, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  49%
Kerry  43%
Other  1%
Unsure  7%
Note: Nader not on ballot.
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*Washington* 
/Strategic Vision (R). Sept. 20-22, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. 
MoE ± 3:/

Bush  45%
Kerry  46%
Nader  2%
Unsure  7%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Ipsos-Public Affairs for The Columbian. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=406 
registered voters statewide. MoE ± 5:/

Bush  41%
Kerry  49%
Nader  2%
Unsure  8%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/American Research Group. Sept. 9-13, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  44%
Kerry  51%
Nader  2%
Unsure  3%
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*West Virginia* 
/MCNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 17-20, 2004. N=619 likely voters (MoE 
± 5):/

Bush  51%
Kerry  45%
Unsure  4%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/American Research Group. Sept. 14-16, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  46%
Kerry  46%
Nader  2%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
13-14, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  45%
Kerry  44%
Unsure  11%
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*Wisconsin* 
/University of Wisconsin/Capital Times/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Badger 
Poll. Sept. 15-21, 2004. N=485 adults statewide who are registered to 
vote or have definite plans to register so they can vote in the election 
on Nov. 2 (MoE ± 4), including 468 who "said they would either certainly 
or probably actually cast ballots" (MoE ± 4):/

Bush  52%
Kerry  38%
Nader  4%
Unsure  5%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC. Sept. 
14-16, 2004. N=625 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:/

Bush  46%
Kerry  44%
Nader  1%
Unsure  9%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

/American Research Group. Sept. 12-15, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 
4):/
Bush  46%
Kerry  46%
Nader  1%
Other  1%
Unsure  6%
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*Wyoming* 
/American Research Group. Sept. 9-11, 2004. N=600 likely voters. (MoE ± 4):/
Bush  65%
Kerry  29%
Nader  2%
Unsure  3%
Note: Wyoming last went Democratic in 1964.
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Polls, Methodology and the Interactive Map
The U.S. presidential election is decided by the results of 51 electoral 
vote contests. In all states except Maine and Nebraska the electoral 
votes go to the winner of the popular vote in a "winner-take-all" 
system. (Colorado is considering an initiative to create proportional 
distribution of its electoral vote in November.) Thus, trends in the 
campaign must be considered on a state-by-state basis.

The initial setting of the pop-up flash interactive map is colored red 
or blue if either candidate in the latest major poll has a lead outside 
the margin of error. Poll data are provided by PollingReport.com; only 
polls with methodologies that meet its standards are used. The initial 
setting also shows a recent national poll for reference, but note that 
the national vote does not determine the winner. PollingReport.com lists 
national polls on the free section of its site; see link at the top 
right of this page.

The Times' map does not attempt to indicate states that are "leaning" 
one way or another or make conclusions about trends from a series of 
polls. The data used is from the most recent major poll only. In a few 
cases, we've included other recent polls above.

When no recent poll is available but voting trends and patterns suggest 
one candidate is likely to win a state, this page and the map may show a 
state as "Bush" or "Kerry." Otherwise the state is white, indicated by 
"swing" above or "Up for Grabs" on the map.

Polls are a snapshot in time; changes are expected. Notes below each 
state may indicate a second poll taken within a few weeks or another 
relevant factor. The campaigns, The Times and other observers have 
identified 17 key battleground states that are indicated with an asterik 
in the first list of states at the top of this page.

The poll data presented here are from probability-sample surveys, 
conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Where available, surveys 
of likely presidential election voters are used. However, users should 
be aware that polling organizations screen for "likely" voters in 
different ways. All generally use various combinations of three 
criteria: Voting history, interest in the election and stated intention 
to vote. But variations in the results of different surveys are to be 
expected. For example, some organizations will never use a first-time 
voter in a poll because they have no voting history while others may 
include them if their answers to certain screening questions indicate 
they are interested in the election.

In addition, some organizations weight their results to conform to 
specific proportions of political party identification (sometimes based 
on past turnout or other polls that ask about party identification), 
while others consider that variable to be too changeable to use as a 
weight.

In some cases, polls that have been reported in the news media are not 
included here because details of the survey methodology are unavailable.

When a poll has asked presidential preferences both with and without 
Ralph Nader, the survey that includes Ralph Nader is used. If Nader 
ultimately does not qualify for a state's ballot, however, the survey 
without him will be used. Other third-party candidates will be on this 
page if they had at least one percent in the poll but added to 
"undecided" on the map, due to space constraints.

Some polls used name the vice presidential candidates and some do not. 
Full details are available from PollingReport.com.

The map, its colors and all notes are by latimes.com. Only the reported 
polling data comes from PollingReport.com.

On the initial setting of the map, white states are within the latest 
polls' stated margin of error (MoE ±). ( Definitions of margin of error. 
<http://www.google.com/search?q=define%3A&q=margin+of+error&Overview=1>) 
"Bush" states are states with red and "Kerry" states are blue.

Comments may appear as you roll over states. "Safe" is used when there 
are large leads in polls and trends from previous elections for one 
party or another.

(R) or (D) sometimes appears to indicate that the polling organization 
is often associated with one party or the other.

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Electoral Vote Changes for 2004
After the 2000 census, seats in the House of Representatives were 
reallocated based on new population trends. Electoral votes are based on 
those numbers. Here are the changes for 2004 from 2000:

*Gained Electoral Votes:* Arizona (+2); Florida (+2); Georgia (+2); 
Texas (+2); California (+1); Colorado (+1); Nevada (+1); North Carolina 
(+1).

*Lost Electoral Votes:* New York (-2); Pennsylvania (-2); Connecticut 
(-1); Indiana (-1); Illinois (-1); Michigan (-1); Mississippi (-1); Ohio 
(-1); Oklahoma (-1); Wisconsin (-1).
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Ballot Standing of Third Parties and Ralph Nader:

Libertarian Mark Badnarik appears to be safely on the ballot in all 
states except Oklahoma. Green Party candidate David Cobb is likely to be 
on 30 state ballots and Constitution Party candidate Michael Anthonty 
Peroutka is likely to be on about 40 state ballots. Of these, only 
Badnarik has had as much as one percent in state polls covered by this 
page since June. Those were in Minnesota and Iowa. There are other 
third-party candidates as well, but they are on fewer state ballots.

Ralph Nader, however, is often included in these surveys and polls above 
one percent routinely. However, Nader is unlikely to be on as many state 
ballots as he was on in 2000, when he was on 43 ballots.

Although not all authorites agree, as of Sept. 22, 2004:

. Nader appears to be permanently blocked from the ballot in Arizona, 
California, Georgia, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, North Carolina, 
Oklahoma and Virginia.

. Legal challenges continue in Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, 
New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Texas.

. Nader appears to be qualified for the ballot in Alabama, Alaska, 
Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, 
Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, 
Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, 
South Carolina, South Dakoka, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West 
Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

In states where Ralph Nader is not on a party ticket, his campaign had 
to file independent petitions to appear on the ballot.

The Reform Party endorsed Nader, which enabled him to skip petition 
drives. However, litigation and battles within the Reform Party in some 
states made his status unclear. Other appeals and litigation continues 
over several issues, including the issue of Republicans gathering 
petitions for him.

Because Nader's former group, the Green Party, elected not to endorse 
him this year, he will not appear automatically on the Green ticket in 
the 22 states where the party has gained ballot access.

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------------------------------------------------------------------------


About "PollingReport.com"
PollingReport.com publishes data from opinion polls of the American 
public. Many surveys are available at no cost at its website, 
pollingreport.com <http://www.pollingreport.com>.

Additional data (including state-by-state presidential, congressional, 
and gubernatorial polls), plus analyses by leading pollsters, are 
available to subscribers. An introductory one-year subscription costs 
$95 and includes access to its subscriber web site, plus its 
twice-a-month newsletter. For details, see: 
www.pollingreport.com/nletter.htm 
<http://www.pollingreport.com/nletter.htm>.


------------------------------------------------------------------------


*Questions and Comments: *

E-mail quesitons or comments to feedback at latimes.com 
<mailto:feedback at latimes.com>. Put "Poll map" in the subject field.
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