[Homestead] Bush dead-cat bounce in polls fading
tvoivozd at infionline.net
Tue Sep 14 20:46:06 EDT 2004
Kerry ahead among independents, Bush faithful more faithful. Bush
non-military-service may prove embarassing,and unknown events between
now and November can pop up at any time to stimulate a swing vote either
way. And the jobless pain in the Rust Belt, which can only get more
painful is a wild card Better than two squalling, clawing, biting
wildcats in a gunnysack.
The Christian Science Monitor - csmonitor.com
from the September 15, 2004 edition -
New poll shows Bush bounce fading
*By Liz Marlantes
| Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
*WASHINGTON* - More than a week after the Republican National Convention
- and in the wake of new questions about President Bush's National Guard
service - the race for the White House is once again tightening, just as
pollsters and strategists for both campaigns had predicted it would.
A new Monitor/TIPP poll finds Mr. Bush and Sen. John Kerry currently
tied among likely voters nationwide, with each receiving 47 percent of
the vote in a two-man race, and each receiving 46 percent when
independent candidate Ralph Nader is added to the ballot. The poll of
674 likely voters was conducted Sept. 7-12, and has a margin of error of
Immediately following the GOP convention, polls showed Bush with a lead
of anywhere from 7 to 11 points. But that bounce seems to be fading, as
more recent polls cut Bush's lead down to 4 or 5 points (though an AP
poll this week still showed Bush up by 8). Analysts attribute the shift
in large part to a natural tightening as the convention glow wears off.
It may also reflect a more recent series of challenges for the president
- from the renewed controversy over whether he fulfilled his National
Guard commitments during Vietnam to the escalating violence in Iraq as
US fatalities passed the 1,000 mark. Senator Kerry has ramped up his
attacks, too, focusing this week on issues such as the expiration of the
assault weapons ban, and healthcare.
Still, Bush retains certain distinct advantages as he and Senator Kerry
head into the final stretch of the race.
Bush's score on the Monitor/TIPP presidential leadership index - a
compilation of job approval ratings, favorability ratings, and
leadership ratings - has risen two points since last month's poll, to
51. Notably, the president's ratings on leadership have shot up 6
percent, to 57 - the largest increase since last January.
More important, the intensity of Bush's support is significantly higher
than Kerry's, with 85 percent of Bush voters saying they "strongly"
favor their candidate, compared with 60 percent of Kerry voters.
Likewise, there are signs Bush's attention to his base is paying off: 94
percent of Republicans support Bush, while 83 percent of Democrats back
Kerry. "In close elections such as this, the intensity of candidate
support is of utmost importance" since it tends to correlate with voter
turnout, says Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, who conducted the poll.
There are some positive notes for Kerry: He holds a 10-point edge among
independent voters, winning 48 percent support to Bush's 38 percent. The
poll also indicates that the economy remains Kerry's best issue: Among
voters worried about job security, he holds a 29-point advantage.
But Bush may also benefit from a widespread perception of his political
strength - reinforced, recently, by his lead in many post-convention
polls. Nearly half of respondents believe the president will ultimately
win in November; only 16 percent think Kerry will win.
Full HTML version of this story which may include photos, graphics, and
related links <http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0915/p02s01-uspo.html>
More information about the Homestead