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  • From: Stephen Sherman <spsherm@msn.com>
  • To: permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] The US is no longer food self-reliant?
  • Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2012 19:35:11 -0600

I'm getting to this thread a bit late, but wanted to add a few thoughts which were not yet touched on:

While this is an interesting discussion, I think it is important to recognize that it really is several inter-related discussions. In modern Western civilization one cannot really discuss food "sufficiency" without also examining the food distribution systems, and also the economic/monetary systems which "power" the other legs (including the food production leg). A failure in any one can cause a food crisis.

I fully agree with Toby, that the US (and NA) produce sufficient food in normal weather years to feed its inhabitants (ignoring for now the issues of how healthy or sustainable that food production is). Whether or not that food can get to the consumers and those consumers will be able to afford to purchase that food are other worthy questions. Recent history (the 1930's) indicates that economic disruptions can reek havoc with these systems (recall the b&w pictures of food kitchens/lines and farmers dumping milk and other crops because they could not afford to produce them at the going price from that time).

We have gotten better at managing the appearance of poverty/hunger. No more large scale food kitchens in big cities with long lines outside. Instead we have 15% of the population receiving food stamps (or whatever the new name for them is). Up sharply since the financial crisis of '08. It certainly presents a better picture on the surface (no long food lines on the evening news every night), and it preserves the dignity of the recipients. But it may also have other unintended consequences, such as adding unsustainable support to food distribution and economic systems which need to change. The first step in changing something is recognizing that there is a problem; unfortunately the display of problems is managed too well to allow effect and timely feedback loops to develop.

I'd agree too that a financial crisis is potentially the largest risk on the near term horizon (that is if your horizon extends out a few years). There is a joke which is going around the bond trading pits: "What's the difference between the US and Spain/Greece? Answer: About 2-3 years." It is amazing to me how many times the "Euro crisis" can be solved, only to fall apart again a few months later (sometimes in even less time); yet everyone seems to believe the next fix will really do it.

Is there any credit based monetary/financial system really sound today? The answer I believe is varying degrees of no, depending upon which country you are speaking of. As the financial/monetary crisis moves from place to place, I expect to see winners and losers. For a while some currencies may benefit as "wealth" rushes to them if they are perceived as a safe haven. But in reality, all the financial systems are suffering from the same "disease;" it just is more advanced in some countries.

As to the inflation/deflation question, I use this analogy to explain it. Preparing for inflation or deflation is like watching a very drunk person stumbling down the sidewalk and placing a bet on whether he falls to the right or left. You know he will eventually fall, and that is all you really need to plan for. Why try to predict the future to the point knowing which direction he finally goes down. Same thing with financial/currency systems. It is pretty clear they are stumbling around preparing for a fall, that may be all you need to know. Preparations which remove your life and wealth from the financial system may be the most robust change you can make, regardless of which way the teetering financial system finally falls.

Remember too, inflation/deflation are very relative concepts in modern finance. For example, in the Argentine crisis in the 90's, when their currency collapsed, the locals experienced massive inflation and lock downs on their financial assets in the system. Yet at the same time, people outside the country saw deflation and were able to pick up Argentine assets at bargain basement prices. The Argentines who were savvy enough to transfer their wealth to other currencies prior to the crisis, could act like foreigners and scoop up bargains. The extent of how or if this replays in other countries in the future depends upon if there are players "outside" that currency system who can take advantage of the local crisis.

All in all, a very interesting but broad topic. My motto is consider the worst, but prepare for the most likely...





















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