Skip to Content.
Sympa Menu

msar-riders - Re: [MSAR] Lost Person Behavior

msar-riders@lists.ibiblio.org

Subject: Mounted search and rescue

List archive

Chronological Thread  
  • From: "IRVIN LICHTENSTEIN" <ilichten1@verizon.net>
  • To: "'Mounted search and rescue'" <msar-riders@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [MSAR] Lost Person Behavior
  • Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2006 13:25:25 -0400

There are later works and more academically accepted studies that involved
higher numbers of cases. Most studies more than 10 years old have had case
counts of under 30. There was one done by a member of the ASRC and presented
to the PA SAR Council some time ago (c1990) that had close to 100 cases but
they were also spread out over several years.

The problem with any statistical study is to obtain a broad base in numbers,
geography, and within a short timeframe, say one year, so that trending can
be analyzed as well as specific instance or category behavior. The PA DCNR
tried for a while (1986-1996) to collect the NASAR summary report form for
every search in PA that was conducted by a member team of the PA SAR
Council. The results, especially who reported and who did not, were
interesting. I don't know if they have continued the effort after 1996.

The larger the number of cases, the less effect an outlier or anomaly has on
the data. For instance, we had a case where the subject was found in London,
England, over 3200 miles away from the PLS, and another where he was found
in Atlanta, GA, about 1000 miles away. These results would skew the distance
curve in an extraordinary manner if they were the only cases reported.
Further, by having the same data collected over time we could then determine
if the data was changing over time and attempt to predict where it was
going. If there was an upsurge in walk a ways versus hikers overdue we
could change the emphasis of our training and prevention efforts.

NASAR has retained an editor from Washington State to revise the MLPI text.
I hope there will be some new, reliable data used in the model.

Irv Lichtenstein





Archive powered by MHonArc 2.6.24.

Top of Page