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  • From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Evelyn Garriss this winter forecast....
  • Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2009 09:29:52 -0700 (PDT)

At least it is warming up here, early morning temperatures raised up to 31
degrees today, compared to 23 yesterday morning.

Basis of predictions? She's a climatologist; the Canadian national newspaper
call her "the weather whisperer" :-).  The longer time frame decatal
oscillations in Pacific and Atlantic, interupted with the sub-cycles of the
El Nino-La Nina patterns, volcanic activity, sun spot activity, are just a
few factors I've heard her mention.



________________________________
From: Lynda <lurine AT com-pair.net>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Sent: Fri, October 30, 2009 8:52:44 PM
Subject: Re: [Homestead] Evelyn Garriss this winter forecast....

Well, I don't know about her predictions or what she bases them on but I do
know how our weather patterns up here work.  The last time we had the
basically same El Nino weather pattern was 2006 and we had a soggy winter.
So, soggy that the 120' Doug fir on our driveway fell over.  It's root
system, quite deep, was able to hold it up because it was water logged.

The two years following were El Nina and we had dry winters.  So, I'm no
expert, but I'm expecting rain and have so prepared.

Oh, and I might add, I'm not expecting too much cold either.  Well,
relatively speaking, cause we do get COLD up here but not like we did the
last two years.  By now, if we were going to have a cold, dry winter, we'd
be burning wood all day.  We would have had a killer frost in mid-September.
We didn't.  We've had a couple of frost which were enough to make tomatoes
look ratty but not a frost down below 20 degrees.

Our dogs, the neighbor's horses, the other neighbor's goats all have only
moderate coats on them.  We shall see.  Personally, I trust the animals more
than humans <g>

Lynda
--"I'm fascinated by the hard line you're drawing over religion -- It gets
used too much, as an excuse, a fall guy, a weapon, a con.  A lot of people,
maybe most, don't mean it except when it suits them."  Dallas
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie" <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>

Evelyn Garriss, The Browning Newsletter, predictions on the weather this
winter.

Prepare for a COLD winter.

Appears that we are going to have weak El Nino conditions this winter - not
good for the whole US.

A lot of volcanic activity all year in N. Pacific, Russia & AK -- has been
blocking sunlight, lots of dust/sulfur in the air.

Artic air is really cold.

In weak El Nino only west US will get some of the warm air - cold air from
artic will go all the way down to the gulf and to east coast all winter,
unusually cold air.

West US will be warmer, but dry.

2007 artic ice expanded over the winter.
2008 artic ice expanded more over the winter.



Worldwide weak monsoon this year. Really bad in India, 25% below normal and
Pakistan 40% below normal - food production way off 15-20% below normal -
trouble in the tribal areas (food shortages) even though Prez says they have
enough stored to hand out food. Worst monsoon in 60 years. They are broke
and can't even afford seed for next year (assume she's talking about typical
farmers in those countries.)

US crops got put in late, there was no heat spell to speed up recovery and
now we are having an early fall, and a colder fall because of the volcanic
activity.

She is hearing a lot of concern from her farmer (clients to her weather
forecast newsletter) in corn, the crops are wet, crops are late, and when
trying to store the crop wet, harvesting is very expensive. Storing wet corn
very prone to disease. Bad conditions for harvest, and bad conditions for
the winter wheat crop.

(Host: Longer term weather cycles - the world is hung up on global warming,
but from what he's been reading, there actually has been a general cooling
trend since 1998.)

Garriss: "Yes and it has been quite dramatic since 2007. 1998 was as warm as
it got and it got a little bit cooler but stayed fairly stable, and then it
plunged rather dramatically since 2007. Remember all the pictures of polar
bears and the concerns that the ice caps were going to just melt away and
the last we'd see of the polar bears as they paddled off into the artic
waters looking for some ice to climb on? Well, what's been happening the ice
cap has been growing back. And it's interesting when you see how it's being
reported. In 2008, we saw a lot of ice growing back. The ice cap at the end
of the summer melt was not as small as it had been the year before. So what
were the headlines? They weren't the ice cap is growing back. The headlines
were we have more thin ice than ever before. That was because it was one
years' growth. So there was a lot of new ice, therefore, the headlines were
worrying because of all of the thin
ice. Now it' grown back a second year. And I think a way to compare it, if
you looked at the end of the summer melt in 2007 and the end of the summer
melt this year the ice was 1.4 times as much territory as Texas. There was
that much additional ice added on to the artic ice cap.

"It is growing back and it's growing back fairly rapidly. Part of the reason
is that we're no longer seeing the global warming and then part of it is the
very short term fact that we've had a lot of volcanic eruptions in the artic
area and the sunlight isn't getting through that chemical gunk and debris in
order to melt the ice. This summer has been really cold and the ice has been
growing back.

"Also some people are quite concerned because the sun goes thru 11 year
cycles of sun spots. And that is tied in with radiation so the same amount
of radiation the sun produces peaks about every 11 years and it bottomed out
around 2007 and they've been waiting for the cycle to start up again and the
face of the sun has been blank. We've had the quietest sun and the least
amount of radiation in almost 100 years."

(Host: You'd never know that by reading what's in the press, that isn't what
the public is being told.)

Garriss: "Well there is something that is going on. You can have the globe
as a whole cooler and certain areas grow warmer. Now in the Atlantic the
flow, most people call it the Gulf Stream, but it is the whole flow of the
Atlantic where the warm tropical water tends to flow north towards the N.
Atlantic. And just like rivers have times where there is rapid flow and when
there is very little flow. So these giant currents int he Atlantic have
times when they flow very rapidly and times when they slow down. Well since
1995, the Atlantic has been flowing very rapidly, and the Atlantic waters
have been getting warmer and warmer. Also cities create so much heat they
create their own little heat islands. So where do most of the policy makers
live? They are living along the east coast or in Europe in cities. So the
rest of the globe can grow cold and they just happen to be living where it
is actually getting warmer."



So the bottom line for THIS winter in North America, is expect a cold one,
caused by lack of sunspots, and and increase in volcanic activity that
started last year that has caused debris in the air blocking the sun, making
the artic air really cold this year.


FYI in the deep south desert here the last 2 mornings it was a measy 24
degrees.... something I wasn't expecting until late December or January.



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Well, as I've often said, weather people, but they climitologists or
whatever, are the only people who get at least half of everything wrong and
don't get fired. If I made as many mistake at a job, on average, as
meterologists and climitologists do, I'd have been fired, big time!

I'll stick with the animals and the rock method (if it's wet, it's rain
<g>). Their "predictions" are far more accurate than folks who get paid to
do the job.

Lynda
--"I'm fascinated by the hard line you're drawing over religion -- It gets
used too much, as an excuse, a fall guy, a weapon, a con. A lot of people,
maybe most, don't mean it except when it suits them." Dallas
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie" <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>


At least it is warming up here, early morning temperatures raised up to 31
degrees today, compared to 23 yesterday morning.

Basis of predictions? She's a climatologist; the Canadian national newspaper
call her "the weather whisperer" :-). The longer time frame decatal
oscillations in Pacific and Atlantic, interupted with the sub-cycles of the
El Nino-La Nina patterns, volcanic activity, sun spot activity, are just a
few factors I've heard her mention.





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