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  • From: Blair Christian <blair.christian AT gmail.com>
  • To: "<ocba AT lists.ibiblio.org>" <ocba AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [ocba] Bee Dieoff in Canada (30M bees)
  • Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2013 16:08:06 -0400

I agree that something is going on. But I think it's more complicated
that we expect. For example, if seed treatments are to blame, then
there should be huge beekills where ever there is corn + seed
treatments + bees. Like in Ontario last year (there were similar
complaints). Like in Kansas (there are not complaints). But if you
look at the data and talk to the beekeepers in Kansas, it appears that
is probably some interaction effect or at least a confounding between
that type of planting and bee kills (check the section in Randy
Oliver's paper where he looks at USDA data on corn planting and
reported bee mortality). I don't know how much to trust all these
reports, but my feeling is that if there was a direct link everywhere,
(eg ever instance of corn + seed treatments + bees = dead bees), that
the conversation would be over. But it seems like bee kills take more
than just bees + pesticides. In statistical jargon, the effect I
worry about is called "confounding", where you blame something
correlated with the actual cause.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding
It appears that there were very similar events last year as well:
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/cps-spc/alt_formats/pdf/pubs/pest/_fact-fiche/bees-incidents-abeilles-2012-eng.pdf

For the record, I put in a call today to Debby Scott, MINISTRY OF
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD, RESEARCH AND CORPORATE SERVICES DIVISION. I
figured that would be the best way to get some real data about bee
kills in Ontario. (left message; recording said they'd return my call
within 24 hrs)
http://www.infogo.gov.on.ca/infogo/office.do?actionType=telephonedirectory&infoType=telephone&unitId=UNT0000330&locale=en
I also called the Canadian Pest Management Regulatory Agency in
Ontario: (left message; recording said they'd return my call within 48
hrs)
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/contact/cps-spc/pmra-arla/infoserv-eng.php
I wanted to get the data about reported bee kills in Canada. The
question I have is: if the use of these pesticides started many years
ago, why are we just hearing about them now? Is there a reporting
bias? (did the bee kills happen for years and they never made the
news? or have the bees been fine until recently?) I think crying
wolf before we have all the evidence will make us lose
credibility/weaken our bargaining power as beekeepers.

I encourage everybody interested the big picture of bee health to read
up on the biggest collection of 2012-2013 bee loss data I've seen,
Randy Oliver's report. Then you have some facts to refer to (whether
they're true or not, having the names of reports or names of peer
reviewed scientific papers shows you know something about the current
research, gives you a lot of credibility and is more likely to get you
answers)
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bzxus2rq3XxPR0ZmTWZMV1h0NTQ/edit?usp=sharing

There is something going on. But it appears to be more like cancer
than like aids in my poor view of the world. (Cancer is just a label
for a huge class of problems with similar symptoms, not necessarily
similar causes- there are genetic (BRACA gene in breast cancer) causes
of cancer, and environmental causes of cancer (asbestos); while AIDS
has a clear cause but may have different symptoms (pneumonia, Kaposi's
sarcoma, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS_defining_clinical_condition
).

Everybody agrees we should separate pesticide exposures from bees as
best we can, and that there is a history of bee kills. But that trend
is decreasing (but not zero). My guess is that there are many
different interactions, that current bee problems are more death by a
thousand cuts (nosema, varroa, viruses, many different
pesticides/insecticides/fungicides, changes in weather patterns/more
extreme weather events) type problems instead of a single cause. In
my opinion, we are experiencing more variation in weather patterns
now-- why aren't we talking about that? Specifically, look at the
North Atlantic oscillation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation (in brief, a
difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores)
and a measure of it over time in December (figure 5):
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2010
(Just a guess), but that kind of change in variation is going to have
direct effects on the variation in nectar flows and pollen
availability, possibly creating more dearths and more extreme nectar
flows (the kind that have been known to cause a honey bound broodnest
for example). Both of those types of extremes cause stress of
different types, making the bees more susceptible to other stresses.

But I'm usually wrong when I try to make big connections like that.
Instead, I think we should focus on all the little things we can learn
from data like the Bee Informed survey, preliminary loss data this
season- it's interesting that the biggest losses were among
commercial, not backyard beekeepers:
http://beeinformed.org/2013/05/winter-loss-survey-2012-2013/
"...The difference between average loss and total loss is explained by
the respondent pool: while a majority of the respondents (95%) were
backyard beekeepers, they managed a small fraction of the colonies
represented in the survey (6%). For this reason total loss (which is
more heavily influenced by commercial beekeeper losses) is more
representative of national losses."

And last season, "Of beekeepers who reported losing at least one
colony during 2011-12, the leading self-identified causes of mortality
were weak condition in the fall and queen failure."
http://www.ibra.org.uk/articles/US-honey-bee-winter-colony-losses-2011-12

It's not that I disagree that pesticides are a problem, but rather
that we (and the media) should be spending equal amounts of
press/discussion on the other problems that are more severe and more
likely to affect our bees. If anybody wants to grab a beer and have a
heart to heart, I'm all for it. If anybody wants to get some data and
have a hackathon, I'm all for that too. Extra food for thought:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/06/cost-benefit-analysis-and-state-secrecy

Best,
Blair


On Mon, Jul 1, 2013 at 1:56 PM, Just Bee <marty AT justbeenc.com> wrote:
> Thanks Tom,
>
> I had seen this case before and I like the way this author tied the Perdue
> study to this case. It's not the only case out there, they are growing.
>
> What I like most is his last phrase..."time to make the connections". I
> agree with that and have been saying that for years.
>
> It's getting clear from these multiple cases, the Perdue study and Bayers
> own actions that this IS a problem for our bees! They are now spending time
> and resources (millions) to address this "issue".
>
> WHY? if neonics are not bad for bees why spend a dime. They are now talking
> about trying to redesign the entire corn planting mechanism so this will no
> longer be an issue. WHY neonics are not bad for bees....right?
>
> The "connection" I'd prefer people to make is the simple one!
>
> If these confirmed cases, the Perdue study and Bayers own actions and
> investment to fix this "issue" shows neonics are bad for bees...WHY is it so
> hard to admit the neonics (in their engineered intent state) inside the
> plant are ALSO bad for bees? I just don't get that. If its bad on the ground
> after some talc powder rubs on it...how is it magically ok up on top in the
> nectar and pollen??
>
> Seriously...how? Cause they say so?
>
> I'm a fan of connections...proves ones point eventually, but the bees keep
> dying while folks keep waiting to do so. That part I'm not a fan of.
>
> Marty
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Jul 1, 2013, at 1:01 PM, "Thomas Grizzle" <griz AT mindspring.com> wrote:
>
> I hope you can see this link…I do not know think this can be considered
> definitive, just one more piece of the puzzle.
>
>
>
> http://www.collective-evolution.com/2013/07/01/over-30-million-bees-found-dead-in-elmwood-canada/
>
>
>
> Tom
>
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