Skip to Content.
Sympa Menu

internetworkers - [internetworkers] Re: Terror futures market (WAS: truly weird, does not appear to be a hoax...)

internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org

Subject: Internetworkers: http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/

List archive

Chronological Thread  
  • From: Jim Allman <jim AT ibang.com>
  • To: internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Cc: Jim Allman <jim AT ibang.com>
  • Subject: [internetworkers] Re: Terror futures market (WAS: truly weird, does not appear to be a hoax...)
  • Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 14:31:47 -0400

I'm stunned that everyone is so shocked (shocked!) by this notion at first glance, that most everyone seems to miss the point that this is a tool for *prediction* of future events.

The idea (as I understand it) is that the aggregate intelligence of lots of people with cash on the line may be as good as, or better than, a cloistered group of experts. It's similar to the efficient market theory (EMT), that the current market value of all stocks reflects a wide diversity of viewpoints and knowledge--short sellers, day traders, institutions and individuals, hedge funds--all with a vested interest in making the right call.

(Note that the "casino" element, while distasteful, is a necessary ingredient for this to work. Then again, if I were a terrorist with a few million to spend, I suppose I'd spread a few bets to "short" my upcoming schemes.)

It's a remarkable idea, one worth investigating, and I almost think Bush might weather the controversy just to vindicate the magical power of markets.

As much as I dislike Poindexter and the TIA project, I'm actually impressed that these people are willing to really reach for radical solutions in these weird times. It seems clear that the attacks in 2001 succeeded partly because of a collective failure of imagination on the part of the government, and I'm disappointed that the Dems are milking this for outrage, instead of saying "hmmm, tell me more".

=jimA=




  • [internetworkers] Re: Terror futures market (WAS: truly weird, does not appear to be a hoax...), Jim Allman, 07/29/2003

Archive powered by MHonArc 2.6.24.

Top of Page