[permaculture] Toby- Re. "Apocalypse Not" - How do you see it presently?

Paul Cereghino paul.cereghino at comcast.net
Fri Nov 16 11:18:55 EST 2007


##we're all so impatient for this collapse to get on with itself, aren't we?

[warning... soapbox hereafter]
I grew up in counter-culture living the 'promise of collapse and 
revolution', and I suspect my daughter will move past that.  Don't 
forget tar sands and oil shale, which may allow another generation of 
procrastination with a staggering cost in carbon emissions.   We are a 
horrifically inventive species when it comes to our wants.  I suspect if 
times get rough we will rediscover less savory political systems that 
satisfy peoples hunger for security while continuing to sacrifice 
health.  If we fail to INITIATE the shift in culture, and in effect 
bringing the rest of our damned society with us, I suspect we will 
stagger onward for quite some time, gradually forgetting what we have 
lost.  No exciting 'collapse' to goad us awake, just a gentle mindless 
decent into increasingly more cockroach-like behavior.  Look at the 
living conditions in early industrial times... we have a long way to go 
down before 'we' let things get 'out of control'.  And if we allow this 
hungry ghost to live on, don't think it will leave us alone to develop 
our tribal utopia.  Pace yourself, broaden your base, this is a long 
term all or nothing game, and we will have to DESIGN the cultural shift 
carefully based on systematic and honest cultural assessments of the 
terrain and the countervailing forces, and not build castles of sand on 
a foundation subcultural apocalypse theory (like our apocalyptic 
Christian brethren.)
-Paul Cereghino

----------------

another global warming update...

"By burning fossil fuel and clearing forests human beings have 
significantly altered the global carbon cycle," says Chris Field of the 
Carnegie Institution'
s Department of Global Ecology, one of the report's lead authors. A 
result has been the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but so 
far this has been partially offset by carbon uptake by the oceans and by 
plants and soils on land. "In effect, we have been getting a huge 
subsidy from these unmanaged parts of the carbon cycle," notes Field. 
Overall, this subsidy has sequestered, or hidden from the atmosphere, 
approximately 200 billion tons of carbon. In North America much of it 
has come from the regrowth of forests on former farmland and the uptake 
of carbon by agricultural soils. But these carbon sinks may be reaching 
their limit as forests mature and climate conditions change. And some 
may literally go up in smoke if wildfires become more frequent, as some 
climate simulations predict. Planting forests and adopting 
carbon-conserving practices such as no-till agriculture may increase 
carbon sinks somewhat, but this would not come close to compensating for 
carbon emissions, which continue to accelerate. "There are a lot of good 
reasons for replenishing our forests and encouraging better agricultural 
practices," says Ken Caldeira, another author of the report, also at 
Carnegie's Department of Global Ecology. "But if we want to mitigate our 
impact on the carbon cycle, there's no escaping the fact that we need to 
drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions." 
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071114111141.htm 
<http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071114111141.htm>





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