[permaculture] Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation | Organic Eprints - Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
Subject: [permaculture] Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation | Organic Eprints - Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation
Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We
assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a
hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic
assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human
diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products
meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible
limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in
2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the
option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass
harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the
quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints
strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into
natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with
globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of
many developing regions.
Subject terms:
[permaculture] Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation | Organic Eprints - Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation,
Lawrence London, 06/05/2016