From: Nicholas Roberts <nicholas@themediasociety.org>
To: permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>, D <bocor@bigbutton.com.au>
Subject: [permaculture] Vic bushfires and Qld floods offer glimpse into future
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:22:35 +1100
*Vic bushfires and Qld floods offer glimpse into future*
*Andrew Glikson, earth and paleo-climate scientist at ANU writes:*
The hell to high water state the Australian continent finds itself in
imparts new poignancy to climate change, which many people still regard as a
distant scenario.
It has long been predicted that global warming will manifest itself through
a series of extreme weather events, the result of high energy cyclons
generated over warming ocean water, rising air plumes over land and
increasing temperature contrasts between evaporating cloud masses and
continental warm air currents.
...In the last 50 years for the land areas sampled, there has been a
significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a
significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Decreases in
the occurrence of cold days and increases in hot days, while widespread, are
generally less marked. The distributions of minimum and maximum temperatures
have not only shifted to higher values, consistent with overall warming, but
the cold extremes have warmed more than the warm extremes over the last 50
years. More warm extremes imply an increased frequency of heat waves.
The study is based in south-east Australia, an area projected to become
hotter and drier under climate change. In south-east Australia, since 1950:
(1) rainfall has decreased; (2) droughts have become more severe; (3) the
number of extremely hot days has risen. A key finding of this study is that
an increase in fire-weather risk is likely at most sites in 2020 and 2050,
including the average number of days when the Forest Fire Danger Risk rating
is very high or extreme.
Recognizing the risk, the Victorian Premier Brumby is planning a Royal
Commission which may yet raise question regarding the ridiculous carbon
emission targets nominated by the Rudd-Wong-Garrett Government, with
potential differences reminiscent of the Schwarzenegger-Bush climate change
conflict.
Climate experts from across the world will gather in Copenhagen next month
to agree to a stark message to policy makers, which they hope will break the
political deadlock on efforts to curb rising temperatures.