*1. Our demand for oil is unchangeable and is not significantly affected by price. * /[It hasn't been so far, even though the price has climbed steeply. The poorest countries, however, are already suffering plenty, as they can no longer afford the energy needed to support their infrastructures.]Oil prices are still, adjusted for inflation, below their 1980 record price. So we've had 27 years to get complacent and to adjust to a moderate increase in price, as well as learning to live with the unheard of volatility of the last couple decades. The rise from $60 to $90/bbl is nearly entirely due to speculation and is viewed by most oil pros as simple volatility; real shortages are not here yet. Oil is still cheap, so I don't expect a lot of change in behavior until we have averaged $110/barrel or maybe much more, for some months or more--we've been in the 90s for just a few days. And demand in the last few weeks has dropped by about 4%, says the Wall Street Journal.
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/Again, we're not at a point where we're getting much direct feedback from shortages. But the energy situation is one of the biggest topics in every major publication. I see an enormous shift in consciousness around energy awareness. Read the business press and count how many articles are on energy compared to, say, 3 years ago. Even conservative publications are reporting energy news, along with global warming. Awareness is the first step toward action. No promises, there, but I see it as a very good sign.
/*2. We are so badly addicted to oil that we will watch our civilization collapse rather than change our behavior.* /[Certainly no good news yet. If the U.S. Dept. of Enrgy report that said we'd need a decade of flat-out nationwide effort before peak, "or the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary" is accurate, we are in for it.]
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/*3. Significant oil conservation is not possible in the time frame needed**/. /*/ [We haven't even begun to conserve.]
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/*4. Even with conservation, demand will be more than oil plus alternatives can possibly meet*/. ["Dampening" of demand occuring in poor nations is the only factor lowering demand so far. Alternatives have not added anything significant yet, but have threatened world food supplies. Production has been flat since about the time you wrote the article. Conservation is still just a gleam in the eye of idealists. Only demand has increased significantly.
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/*5. Society is so fragile that it cannot withstand large shocks.*
/[Previous complex societies have collapsed under multiple stresses, as outlined in Tainter's book, //The Collapse of Complex Societies. With peak oil, global climate change, an economy running on fumes.... our society is facing more large stresses than others that succumbed to fewer. No complex society has lasted long, due to the fragility caused by complexity. And no society has been as complex as ours.]
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