Subject: [permaculture] Global Warming Bubbling Up
Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 15:01:02 -0600
Recent scientific findings have increased concerns about the growing
likelihood of catastrophic global warming. Here are some headlines, quotes
and comments.
Additional attention was drawn to the issue January 16 with:
<< TITLE >> James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that
may last as long as 100,000 years
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article338830.ece
Comments on the above, also published in the Independent, include:
<< TITLE >> Environment in crisis: 'We are past the point of no return'
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0116-06.htm
<< TITLE >> Why Gaia is Wreaking Revenge on our Abuse of the Environment
"With anyone else, you would not really take it seriously: the proposition
that because of climate change, human society as we know it on this planet
may already be condemned, whatever we
do." http://www.zpenergy.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1694
These concerns are based on recent reports of additional unexpected
positive feedbacks plus increased understanding of past extinction events
which indicate that "...as a consequence of the disappearance of the sea
ice: carbon dioxide catastrophe (could lead to) methane catastrophe (which
could lead to) hydrogen sulfide catastrophe"
http://www.killerinourmidst.com/now.html
This web book includes a summary chart of several ways in which generally
accepted views are being replaced by increased concern due to new findings.
http://www.sundayherald.com/51146
<< TITLE >> Earth losing fight against global warming
According to Dr Inez Fung of the University of California, Berkeley "The
Earth is entering a climate space weve never seen before."
Below is some additional web material supporting that view.
<< TITLE >>Warmer seas will wipe out plankton, source of ocean life
Independent, UK. 19 January 2006
"...a new "positive feedback" mechanism that could result in more carbon
dioxide ending up in the atmosphere to cause a runaway greenhouse effect."
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0119-01.htm
<< TITLE >> Global Warming to Speed Up as Carbon Levels Show Sharp Rise
The Independent UK, Sunday 15 January 2006
"Scientists fear that warming is entering a new phase, and may accelerate
further."
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0115-04.htm
<< TITLE >> Climb-It Science An interview with swashbuckling climate
scientist Lonnie Thompson
"If a small increase in carbon dioxide boosts tropical temperatures even
just a smidge, the tropical oceans will release more moisture, which in
turn will increase temperatures worldwide via the enhanced greenhouse
effect as water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas."
http://www.grist.org/news/maindish/2006/01/19/little/
Some additional disturbing news reported earlier in the year is summarized
in http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18616
New York Review of Books · January 12, 2006
<< TITLE >> The Coming Meltdown
By Bill McKibben
"...Arctic sea ice is melting fast. ..."the feeling is we are reaching a
tipping point or threshold beyond which sea ice will not recover." That is
particularly bad news because it creates a potent feedback effect:
In the tundra of Siberia, other researchers report that permafrost has
begun to melt rapidly, and, as it does, formerly frozen methanewhich, like
the more prevalent carbon dioxide, acts as a heat-trapping "greenhouse
gas"is escaping into the atmosphere. In some places last winter, the
methane bubbled up so steadily that puddles of standing water couldn't
freeze even in the depths of the Russian winter.
British researchers, examining almost six thousand soil borings across the
UK, found another feedback effect. Warmer temperatures (growing seasons now
last eleven days longer at that latitude) meant that microbial activity had
increased dramatically in the soil. This, in turn, meant that much of the
carbon long stored in the soil was now being released into the atmosphere.
The quantities were large enough to negate all the work that Britain had
done to switch away from coal to reduce carbon in the atmosphere. "All the
consequences of global warming will occur more rapidly," said Guy Kirk,
chief scientist on the study. "That's the scary thing. The amount of time
we have got to do something about it is smaller than we thought." "
The above and other reports prompted the renowned climate scientist, James
Lovelock, to issue his especially pessimistic prognosis January 16.. That
view is based partially on his estimation of current cultural trajectories
and inertia -- especially those of the United States, China and India.
See
<< TITLE >> Global warming: Is it too late to save our planet?
The Scotsman, Tue 17 Jan
2006 http://news.scotsman.com/features.cfm?id=76062006 which provides a
summary as well as comments by other authorities.
A somewhat more optimistic evaluation is that of James Hansen, another
prestigious climate researcher, who presents a number of alternatives to
"business as usual" that could be effective if implemented soon enough.
<< TITLE >> Is There Still Time to Avoid "Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference" with Global Climate? Presentation by J. Hansen, given Dec. 6,
2005, at the American Geophysical
Union http://www.giss.nasa.gov/~jhansen/keeling/keeling_talk_and_slides.pdf "...I present multiple lines of evidence indicating that the Earths
climate is nearing, but has not passed, a tipping point, beyond which it
will be impossible to avoid climate change with far ranging undesirable
consequences.
...The required actions make practical sense and have other benefits, but
they will not happen without strong policy leadership and international
cooperation. Action must be prompt, otherwise CO2-producing infrastructure
that may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep further
global warming under 1°C.
... The public, if well-informed, has the ability to override the influence
of special interests, and the public has shown that they feel a stewardship
toward the Earth and all of its inhabitants...."
(Apparently, he also didn't incorporate the recent positive feedback
findings, which aren't included in the models yet)
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Slightly more optimistic evaluations based on existing model are still
coming out.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-future20jan20,0,776439.story?coll=la-headlines-world
January 20, 2006
<< TITLE >> 'Green' Measures Key to Earth's Future, Report Says
" Countries also need to start curtailing the use of fossil fuels to limit
the effects of climate change, which could raise temperatures by 3.5
degrees by 2050 and increase sea levels by several inches,.
...If major changes are not made ... curtailing the use of fossil fuels
...disasters ... collapse,..."
Although it seems only minor adjustment of "business as usual" is called for. http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0120/p04s01-sten.html
From the January 20, 2006 Christian Science Monitor
<< TITLE >> Forecast for Earth in 2050: It's not so gloomy
" But people must begin to manage its ecosystems to put the planet on a
sustainable path,
...We have the tools we need" ...a five-volume coda to the UN's Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment,...
...By 2050, it estimates that the highly global approach - with liberal
trade policies, and concerted efforts to reduce poverty, improve education
and public health, yet respond reactively to environmental issues - could
yield the lowest population growth and the highest economic growth. But the
environmental scorecard would be mixed. "
And finally
<< TITLE >> No More Mr. Nice Guy
Climate change is pushing this easygoing enviro over the edge By Bill
McKibben --- 12 Jan 2006
http://www.grist.org/comments/soapbox/2006/01/12/mckibben/
"...the environmental movement is reaching an important point of division,
between those who truly get global warming, and those who don't.
By get, I mean understanding that the question is of transcending urgency,
that it represents the one overarching global civilizational challenge that
humans have ever faced. That it's as big as the Bomb.
...But in the real world, according to Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we have at most 10 years to
reverse this trend. Which means we have to do everything quickly -- hybrid
cars and solar panels and compact light bulbs and local food and tree
planting. And windmills, lots and lots of windmills, just like off the
shores of Europe.
....this planet is rapidly becoming the worst of all possible worlds, a
place that before my daughter dies may well see temperatures exceeding
anything since before the dawn of primate evolution. A planet facing
hundreds of millions of environmental refugees as a result of rising seas,
with heat waves like the one that killed 35,000 in Europe becoming
commonplace occurrences. I mean, we went through the usual hurricane
alphabet this past year, and got all the way to the Greek letter Zeta.
Why? Because even if we win every other battle, if we lose this one, it
won't make any difference at all."
Blisssings...Rael
Rael Bassan
Coordinator
Chicagoland Urban Permaculture (CUP)
1020 W. Lawrence Ave. #1216
Chicago, IL, USA, 60640-6535
773-907-1465 http://sustaincup.blogspot.com/
[permaculture] Global Warming Bubbling Up,
Rael Bassan, 01/26/2006