To: "Permaculture List" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
Subject: Re: [permaculture] Peak Oil
Date: Wed, 12 Oct 2005 16:50:03 -0700
Kaia Bronte wrote:
> I notice that a lot of people try to predict the future in relation to peak
> oil scenarios, armageddon, the rapture, aliens invading, and the sun
> exploding. Your guess is as good as Art Bell's I suppose.
>
> We cannot predict the future with any consistent accuracy. Making a plan
> based on an unknowable future is not regenerative--it's folly.
I wish it were possible, Kaia, to concentrate on gardening and "take no
thought for tomorrow."
Unfortunately, peak oil and global warming are two very serious problems
which require a lot of thought. I wonder if you are responding to the wild
speculation -- doomsday scenarios -- about the future? If so, I agree that
they are not very useful.
However, it is both necessary and possible to come to some general
conclusions about the future. There's general agreement that Peak Oil will
occur within the next 20 years, for example, and that the climate will become
increasingly erratic. The price of energy will almost certainly rise,
perhaps dramatically, with both economic and political consequences. The
next few decades will be a period of great change, though the particulars are
hard to discern.
Permaculturalists are well placed to weather the changes, with our emphasis
on reducing inputs and relying on natural cycles. But even permaculture will
undergo a shift, as sustainability becomes critical for survival. Peak oil
writer Richard Heinberg characterizes the coming period as "Sustainability
with teeth."