To: North American Fruit Explorers <nafex@lists.ibiblio.org>
Subject: Re: [NAFEX] [ARTICLE] Drier climate predicted for most of U.S. and Canada
Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2010 18:55:11 -0500
If you remember, the map in the article referred to the period 2060 to
2069, also that it showed SE Ohio as a less severely affected area.
Within climate trends there are cycles, sometimes of about 30 years or
so. As a Canadian I'm acquainted with the history of the Palliser
Triangle on the Canadian prairies, and the controversy about whether
it's really suitable for cultivation, the state of the controversy
depending on whetehr we're in a wet or a dry spell. As someone
interested in Russian history, I'm somewhat acquainted with the cycles
of drought and famine versus rain and plenty, in especially the
black-earth (ex-prairie) areas of Russia. Then, within cycles there is
weather.
I notice too that among climate scientists the consensus of opinion
about future soil moisture tends to vary from time to time. I remember
some pessimistic opinions around 1988, then reduced pessimism, now a
restoration of pessimism.
I understand that it is considered unwise in Arizona and New Mexico to
camp in gullies and river bottoms no matter how dry they look. I've also
read sad tales of confident foreign engineers who have built bridges
across the narrow, shallow and generally inoffensive-looking Helmand
River in Afghanistan in the dry season.
Climate has varied a lot in the past, and I expect it will vary a lot in
the future, expecially with humans adding extra variables to an already
complex system.
I wouldn't read too much into your mud this fall.
Doug Woodard
St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada
On 03/12/2010 5:41 PM, Deb S wrote:
We're up to our ankles in mud here in SE Ohio, so maybe we're exempt
from the drought? :)