On Nov 12, 2007, at 6:39 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:
That change in lifestyle is going to happen come soon or late, and
my bet
would not be on it being voluntary.
Here's the end of an article I just read that is titled:
Peak Oil Again? Is "social meltdown" imminent?:
In 1980, when oil reached $101.70 per barrel in real terms, spending
on gasoline was 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer
expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income,
according to a March 2005 report by Goldman Sachs. If oil prices
reach $105 per barrel, the report noted that gasoline spending would
reach 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer
expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income. Prices
would have to rise to $135 per barrel to equal 1970s levels. In
addition, it takes only half as much energy to produce a dollar of
GDP today than it did in 1980.
Instead of the "meldown of society," a likely and painful scenario is
that greedy and incompetent government oil producers will continue to
under-invest, causing a shortfall in supplies that will drive up
prices and provoke a global economic slowdown. Expensive oil also
encourages consumers and businesses to invest in energy efficiency
that will combine with the slowdown to cut demand. Reduced demand
will drive down oil prices as steeply as they rose. Some day peak oil
production will be reached, but most oil reserve estimates suggest
that there are good reasons to doubt that that day is now at hand.