At the moment the most powerful Shiite cleric, Al Sistani, is being nice
to the
Sunnis and offering them a minor place in government. If the Sunni's
continue their
killing of Shiite police and army their temporary forbearance will turn
into a Saddam-like
iron fist and a first-class blood bath---unlike U.S. Army
actions---totally out of view of
cameras and off the stage of world newspapers. Can't blame them---quick
and bloody is
decisive, slow and a little less blood is never decisive.
Unless it develops over Kurdish oil in Mosul, the Shiites have no
quarrel with the Kurds who
pose no threat of any kind to majority Shiites---the latter consider
them to be useful political
cover against world opinion, for which they have little regard,
anyway---and there is lots of
oil in the rest of Iraq---more than enough to go arounds.
[Homestead] My Iraq predict6ion,
tvoivozhd, 02/05/2005