Turkey eyes Iraq poll with concern
by Jonathan Gorvett
Friday 28 January 2005 7:46 PM GMT
* Turkey's General Basbug: Iraq's political integrity could be at risk *
*
Turkey's leaders have been voicing fears this week that Sunday's Iraqi
elections may have dire consequences for stability across their southern
border.
*
The deputy chief of staff of the country's powerful military, General
Ilker Basbug, said on Wednesday that developments could threaten the
territorial and political integrity of Iraq and would pose an important
security problem for Turkey.
In 2003, after the US-led invasion of Iraq, Turkey had threatened to
send its troops into the north of the country if it fell under the
control of Kurdish forces. It only backed down after Washington applied
strong pressure.
Central to Basbug's anxiety is the city of Kirkuk. Sitting on top of
some of the world's largest oil fields, the city contains Kurdish, Arab
and Turkmen populations. The latter are seen by many in Turkey as ethnic
brethren left behind at the collapse of the Ottoman empire after World
War I.
Control of the city will be voted on during Sunday's ballot, and Turkey
fears that Kurdish groups have been deliberately tampering with Kirkuk's
ethnic balance to secure an overwhelming victory.
*Swinging the vote*
"Hundreds of thousands of Kurds have migrated to Kirkuk to register to
vote," General Basbug said.
Kurdish groups and the region's government deny any wrongdoing. They
point out that under Saddam Hussein, a policy of Arabisation in the city
had led to the expulsion of much of the Kurdish and Turkmen population.
What is happening now, they say, is just these people returning to their
rightful homes.
"We went to Baghdad and met with US, British and Iraqi government
officials," Khaned Samih, political adviser to the Kurdistan Regional
Government in Arbil, said.
"We came up with an agreement that would make sure Kurds could go back
to Kirkuk and vote. This is now just an internal issue for Iraq."
*Mass migration*
Yet Turkmen groups close to Ankara claim the number of returnees is far
higher than those who were expelled.
*"Civil war will very
likely break out. This
will have a big effect
on the country's neighbours too"*
Asif Sertturkmen,
Iraqi Turkmen Front
"The number we have for the total expelled by Saddam Hussein is 11,865,"
Asif Sertturkmen of the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) said. "The number who
have now returned is 110,000. The Kurds keep coming from Iran, Syria and
other parts of Iraq."
"Civil war will very likely break out," he said. "This will have a big
effect on the country's neighbours too."
Turkey is concerned about this latter point. One columnist of daily
newspaper Radikal summed up the fears.
"Northern Iraq is a time-bomb," columnist Cengiz Candar of the daily
Radikal writes. "And only the US can defuse it."
"Could Turkey just stand back if the Kurds start massacring the Turkmens
or the Arabs?" he asked.
"Probably not. Obviously, the Kurds seem determined to take over
Kirkuk - with the support of the US - but this is not acceptable."
*Kurdish support*
Many in Ankara interpreted US Department of State spokesman Richard
Boucher's declaration this week that disputes over Kirkuk were an
internal Iraqi matter as backing for the Kurds.
The fear in Turkey is also that a Kurdish victory in the elections will
be followed by a declaration of independence for the region or a
referendum on this issue.
"This would create a very dangerous situation," Candar said. "For this
reason, Turkey wants the status quo preserved - for Iraq to remain a
single state."
*Turkey already has a big problem
with its own Kurdish population*
This brings up another, less commonly voiced, fear - that an independent
Kurdish state in northern Iraq would encourage some of Turkey's own
ethnic Kurds, largely located across the border in southeastern Turkey,
to voice their own separatist demands.
"Certainly, it would not look good if Turkey ended up fighting the Kurds
in northern Iraq," Candar says.
Kurdish officials say these fears have been wildly exaggerated.
"Among the Kurdish parties here," Samih said, "there isn't even a hint
of a hidden agenda. People have a very strong degree of realism. They do
not want to sacrifice their prosperity by ending up fighting the Turks
or the US."
*Suspicions*
At the same time, "many here doubt the sincerity of Turkey's concern for
the Turkmens" according to Samih.
"We never heard any responsible politician in Ankara complaining when
Saddam Hussein was expelling Turkmens too from Kirkuk," he said. "The
result is we are suspicious of Turkey's motives in raising this issue now."
*Iraqi Kurds doubt the sincerity of
Ankara's concern for Turkmens*
Some point to Turkish nationalist claims that northern Iraq should be
part of Turkey. These stem from dissatisfaction with the 1926 settlement
that rejected Turkish claims to Mosul and granted the territory to the
British empire.
"If Iraq breaks up into three countries," Candar says, "this might be
seen here as altering previous legal arrangements over the status of the
north."
Meanwhile, Kurdish officials say Turkey would do well to ensure
stability across the border by refraining from intervention -
particularly if the rest of Iraq fragments after the elections.
"Turkey needs stability in Kurdistan," Samih says, "so the chaos in the
south will not come here."