Subject: [Homestead] Iraq, nest timetable after Jan 30 05 election
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 10:35:14 -0500
tvoivozhd---a long way to go, a lot that must be done before Iraq really
has self-government' It will be interesting to see whether it is secular
or some version of theocracy with all the intellectual baggage that
implies. A straw in the wind will be the number of women in government,
in business and whether they shed the age-old symbols of female oppression.
*D*ESIGNED to give Iraq a new democratic frame work at local, provincial
and national levels, today's elections should also confirm the emergence
of a new leadership in the newly-liberated country.
This emerging leadership will have to develop a national consensus on a
new government, a permanent constitution and the status of the U.S.-led
forces present in the country. It will also have to face and ultimately
defeat determined enemies both at home and abroad: the remnants of
Saddamism, diehard Islamists and some of Iraq's neighbors — who all, for
different reasons, do not wish it to become a working democracy.
Some new leaders are former exiles who returned home after liberation,
others are men and women who spent a good part of their lives under
Saddamite tyranny.
The Kurds, a fifth of the population, are the only Iraq community still
led by figures who were around three decades ago. *Massoud Barzani* and
*Jalal Ta**labani*, the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, are likely to stay in the limelight
until a new generation of Kurdish politicians takes shape. The bridge
between the two is represented by leaders like interim government
members *Hoshyar **Zibari* and *Barham Salih*.
Most of the new leaders will be Shiites. *Iyad Allawi*, the interim
prime minister, is likely to emerge as head of the fourth-largest group
in the National Assembly — not enough support to retain his current
position. (Though he may serve as a compromise candidate for the rest of
the year.)
*Ahmad Chalabi*, once the darling of the Pentagon and now a /bete noire/
of Washington, is certain to secure a seat in the new Assembly, but
lacks the support needed to get to the top of Iraqi politics in the
foreseeable future. He could be a key player in the backroom deals that
will become a key feature of politics in the new Iraq.
Other, likely more important, players in the new Shiite leadership include:
*Muhammad Hussein Shah**restani* seems to be the leading Shiite
candidate for prime minister. Once head of Saddam's nuclear project, he
fled into exile when the despot decided to develop nuclear weapons.
Returning last year after two decades of exile, he established himself
as one of the closest political aides of Grand Ayatollah Ali Muhammed
Sistani.
*Abdul-Aziz Hakim*, 52, the leader of the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq is likely to be strengthened by the
elections. His group is expected to emerge as the No. 2 Shiite bloc in
the parliament — where he is tipped to become speaker.
*Ibrahim al-Jaafari*, the leader of the main faction of the Dawa (The
Call) Party, the largest Shiite political group, could emerge as the
Shiite bloc's candidate for the presidency.
A new generation of Shiite technocrats look to *Adel Abdel-**Mahdi*, a
member of the interim government. A French-educated economist,
Abdel-Mahdi is a contender for the key post of minister of finance.
The most notable Shiite to have openly campaigned for a clearly secular
system of government is *Hamid Majid **Moussa*, leader of the Iraqi
Communist Party. He can play a pivotal role in inter-sectarian dialogue
and compromises.
Despite predictions that Arab Sunnis would boycott the elections and
reject the democratic system, the leadership emerging in Baghdad
includes many prominent Sunnis. *Adnan Pachahi*, at 82 the grand old man
of Iraqi diplomacy, is likely to remain a key player at least in the
transition period.
But possibly the most effective Arab Sunni leader is likely to be *Ghazi
al-Yawar*: The incumbent president is likely to be a candidate for the
post again. As sheik of the Shammar, Iraq's largest tribe that includes
both Sunnis and Shiites, he could be a figure of reconciliation.
Also likely to remain prominent: Defense Minister *Hazem **al-Shaalan*;
Minister of Planning *Mahdi al-Hafiz* (who could be the Sunni candidate
for premiership) and Minister of Power *Iham al-Samaraie*, who is trying
to create a centrist bloc with help from Allawi.
Today's elections must be regarded as the first step on a long road
toward the establishment of credible and durable Iraqi democratic
institutions.
The 275-seat Assembly will act as both a legislature and a panel to
draft a new constitution. Its main tasks:
* Meet and elect its own officials, including the speaker and his two
deputies, before March 2005.
* Elect the three members of the presidential council — one president
and two vice presidents — by mid-April.
* Elect a new prime minister and Cabinet on the recommendation of the
presidential council, probably by the end of April.
* Draft Iraq's new Constitution by mid-August.
* Put the draft to a referendum by Oct. 15.
* Hold general parliamentary elections by Dec. 15 (provided the
constitution is approved in the referendum),
* Dissolve itself to make way for the newly elected parliament by Dec.
31. The new parliament will then appoint a new government.
These tasks are designed not only to institutionalize Iraq's democracy
but also to train its new leaders in the art of political horse-trading
— a welcome substitute for the Arab tradition of using violence as the
main instrument of winning and retaining power.
/Amir Taheri is a member of Be//nador Associates./
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[Homestead] Iraq, nest timetable after Jan 30 05 election,
tvoivozhd, 01/30/2005