Subject: [Homestead] Cuban Embargo---want to see a lightning change?
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 08:16:42 -0500
You will if the Cuban oil strike is big---remember that Cheney hasn't
died yet from a heart attack, and his Halliburton owns a big share of
Bush and Congress.
* WASHINGTON - * Is Cuba on the verge of an oil bonanza that could pump
financial life into Fidel Castro's regime and soften U.S. trade policy
toward the island?
If so, new U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez could find himself at the intersection
of conflicting agendas - as a loyalist to President Bush, who draws
support from energy interests as well as from anti-Castro Cubans, as a
hard-line refugee who fled the dictatorship, and as a member of a Senate
committee that weighs energy development against environmental protection.
Martinez dismisses the possibility.
``It's not necessarily a big find,'' the Florida Republican said last
week about reports of oil discovered in Cuba-controlled waters.
And even if it is, he said, ``I don't think there's any likelihood
there'd be any successful pressure on the administration to change
things.''
Martinez, the nation's first Cuban-American senator, said he would
oppose any relaxation of trade barriers with his native country. ``I
definitely would not like to see it,'' he said.
Other Cuba watchers, however, said the hunt for oil barely 100 miles off
Florida's coastline - depending on the quality and quantity of the find
- could fuel the easing of barriers by the end of Bush's second term.
Two Canadian energy companies have discovered what Castro claims is 100
million barrels of oil in waters just off the island's northwestern shores.
Wildcatters from Canada and Spain have been busy in the region where, by
law, U.S. energy companies cannot drill, explore or even help.
The explorers aren't saying much, at least publicly. But if further work
yields results, ``the cry from the American Petroleum Institute and
other actors in Washington will be very loud,'' predicted Jonathan
Benjamin Alvarado, a Cuba energy specialist and political science
professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
``The Americans won't want to be on the sidelines as French, Spanish and
Canadian investors descend on Cuba,'' he said. ``If different oil
companies like Halliburton make a big enough beef, the president will
listen - maybe not until the final third of his term, but he will.''
During decades of prohibitions against U.S. trade, Cuba has enlisted
trading partners from Argentina to Monaco on projects that include
mining and biotechnology.
Many U.S. companies dislike being deprived of the nearby market. And
increasingly, Americans have been undermining the ironclad intent of the
original embargo.
Four years ago, Congress allowed the sale of agricultural products to
Cuba. Last month, delegations from Alabama, Louisiana and Maine toured
the island in an attempt to encourage the Castro government to buy their
agricultural products.
The issue is especially sensitive in Florida, where most Cuban-Americans
support bans on business with Castro - and support Republican
politicians such as Bush and Martinez.
In Florida, even Democrats including U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa are
careful about their positions. Davis has not opposed the trade embargo,
for instance, even as he has called for ``dialogue'' and lesser
restrictions on travel to Cuba.
Martinez rejected speculation that oil could be the next U.S. trade
exception.
``Sen. Martinez may well be correct right now,'' said John Kavulich,
president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. ``But then, who
would have expected the tectonic plate shift in public opinion
subsequent to allowing food and agriculture purchases in 2001?
``The Bush administration has done everything it can, from the
regulatory standpoint to the bully pulpit, to make food and ag exports
difficult. But despite everything, exports continue and the bipartisan
interest level in Congress is high.''
Martinez, as a member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee, said his goals include not only maintaining the embargo but
protecting Florida waters.
Oil drilling off Cuba ``could be potentially a pollution threat to the
coast of Florida,'' he said. ``We've been very vigilant in Florida to
maintain the pristine nature of our coastline and not allow drilling.
It's troubling when a neighboring state might do it.''
Cuba lost Soviet-subsidized oil imports in 1990, and it depends heavily
on Venezuela for fuel.
One of the Canadian companies involved, Sherritt International, the
largest foreign oil producer in Cuba, confirmed it had demonstrated a
1,300-barrel-per-day find near Santa Cruz del Norte.
Repsol YPF of Spain, meanwhile, is drilling in a separate,
4,132-square-mile tract. The American Association of Petroleum
Geologists listed the Repsol find as among the most ``significant
discoveries'' worldwide in 2004.
/ Reporter Keith Epstein can be reached at (202) 662-7673./