US and Iraq All Set for Strike against Syria. Israel Is Braced for
Hizballah Second Front
DEBKAfile Special Military Report Updating DEBKA-Net-Weekly 188
January 11, 2005, 2:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
US warns Syria to keep its newly-purcahsed Kornet AT-14 anti-tank missile
out of Iraq
Last Sunday, January 2, US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage
performed his last major mission before stepping down in favor of Robert B.
Zoellick, whom incoming secretary Condoleezza Rice has picked as her
deputy. (Zoellick, currently trade representative in charge US world trade,
served as deputy to secretary of state James Baker in the Reagan and Bush
Sr. administrations.
This mission took Armitage to Damascus with nine American demands.
DEBKA-Net-Weeklys Washington sources published those demands for the first
time in its last weeks issue:
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1. Start repealing Syrias 40-years old emergency laws.
2. Free all political prisoners from jail.
3. Abolish media censorship.
4. Initiate democratic reform.
5. Speed up economic development
6. Cut down relations with Iran.
7. Announce publicly that the disputed Shebaa Farms at the base of Mt.
Hermon are former Syrian territory. This would cut the ground from under
the Lebanese terrorist Hizballahs claim that the land is Lebanese and must
be liberated from Israeli occupation.
DEBKAfiles counter-terror sources report that the Iran-sponsored
Hizballahs attack on an Israeli convoy patrolling the disputed Shebaa
Farms sector, killing an Israeli officer, on Palestinian election-day,
Sunday, January 9, was addressed as much to President George W. Bush as to
the new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas as a foretaste of what it has in
store.
8. Hand over to US or Iraqi authorities 55 top officials and military
officers of the former Saddam regime, who are confirmed by intelligence to
be established in Syria and running the guerrilla war in Iraq out of their
homes and offices.
(An address, telephone number and cell phone number were listed beside each
name).
But the punchline was in the last demand.
9. Syria had better make sure that none of the Kornet AT-14 anti-tank
missiles which it recently purchased in large quantities from East Europe
turn up in Iraq. US intelligence has recorded their serial numbers to
identify their source. DEBKAfiles military sources add: Because he cannot
afford to buy advanced fighter planes and tanks, Assad purchased massive
quantities of the third generation Kornet AT-14 anti-tank weapons.
Just in case any are found in Iraq, General Casey, commander of US forces
in Iraq has already received orders from the commander-in-chief in the
White House to pursue military action inside Syria according to his best
military judgment.
Number 9 therefore incorporates a tangible threat. The American general has
the authority to launch military action against Syria as he sees fit and
without delay if Damascus continues to meddle in Iraqs affairs.
DEBKAfile adds:
The Syrian ruler protested to Armitage that he is doing everything he can
to hold back the flow of guerrilla fighters and weapons into Iraq. As
proof, he ordered Syrias chief of staff General Ali Habib to establish a
forward command center on the Syrian-Iraq border to oversee efforts to
control border traffic on the spot.
The fact is that General Habib is one of the few Syrian officers which the
Americans have trusted. He commanded the Syrian units dispatched to Saudi
Arabia in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq and made friends with the US
commanders and officials conducting the war, including vice president Dick
Cheney and the then head of joint chiefs of staff, Colin Powell. However,
even Habibs old American buddies do not rule out the possibility that he
was posted to the border not to restrain the traffic but to take command of
Syrian units posted there and prepare them for the contingency of an
American military offensive.
Assad and General Habib are both aware, according to our sources, of the
near carte blanche handed down to General Casey to pursue military action
against Syria as and when indicated by US military requirements in Iraq.
In this regard, DEBKAfiles military sources note four important points:
1. It will not take place before President Bush is sworn in for his second
term on January 20 or Iraqs general election ten days later.
2. The Americans will not start out with a large-scale, orderly military
offensive, but rather short in-and-out forays; small US and Iraqi special
forces units will cross the border and raid bases housing Iraqi guerrillas
or buses carrying them to the border. If these brief raids are ineffective,
the Americans will upscale the action.
3. The Allawi government will formally request the United States to consign
joint Iraqi-US forces for action against Syrian targets, so placing the US
operation under the Baghdad governments aegis. In other words, Iraq will
be at war with Syria without issuing a formal declaration.
4. It is fully appreciated in Washington, Baghdad and Jerusalem that
intense American military warfare against Syria could provoke a Hizballah
backlash against Israel. Damascus may well activate the Lebanese Shiite
group to open a second front on Israels northern border. The Syrian ruler
is expected will tolerate a certain level of American low-intensity,
low-profile action. But, because of his reluctance to strike back directly
at American or Iraqi targets, he will field the Hizballah and not just
for cross-border attacks but to galvanize the terrorist cells it controls
and funds in the West Bank and Gaza Strip into a stepped-up offensive
against Israeli targets. These Palestinian cells have proliferated over the
years, particularly in the Fatah and its branches, encouraged by Yasser
Arafats cooperative pact with the Hizballah which remains in force after
his death.
Therefore, the key Middle East happening in the coming weeks will be US
military strikes against Syria. The election of Mahmoud Abbas as
Palestinian Authority chairman, his invitation to the White House, the
formation of the Sharon-Peres government coalition - albeit on very shaky
legs, and the talk of imminent Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations, will
prove to be no more than sideshows of the main event.