Subject: [Homestead] 98k Iraqis killed after 3/03 invasion
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 13:06:53 -0400
This article (the top headline in today's Roanoke Times) about made me
sick to my stomach.
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http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf (264kb)
Published online October 29, 2004.
Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample
survey
Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert
Burnham
/Summary /
Background In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the
UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period
of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.
/Methods/ A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during
September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed
about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In
those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of
violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death
associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality
in the 17·8 months after the invasion with the 14·6-month period
preceding it.
/Findings/ The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI
1·6-4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion
period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in
the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death
is 1·5-fold (1·1-2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000
more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion
outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is
included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial
infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders
whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death.
Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were
mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly
killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death
from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95%
CI 8·1-419) than in the period before the war.
/Interpretation/ Making conservative assumptions, we think that about
100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of
Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes
from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown
that collection of public-health information is possible even during
periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and
should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.