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[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

> Notice that the source of the view the housing market is still
> all roses is the NAR.  Don't suppose there's any whistling past the 
> garveyard going on here, now do we?

Fair question. I have about 35 years history with NAR. My observation 
is they have the best collection of facts on the housing market in 
the USA and their forecasts are dependable. NAR would lose hard-won 
credibility if they padded numbers. There is no incentive to do so. 
NAR is relied upon for real estate facts by many groups of people.

The National Association of Home Builders may have a superior data 
base of new house permits and completions, but Realtors typically 
sell new homes as well as existing. The Mortgage Bankers Association 
has superior numbers on numbers of mortgage aps and closings. All 
three organizations are useful.

That said, it is apparent that I have not yet impressed upon you the 
importance of unique local conditions. What's happening in Phoenix is 
not happening in Philadelphia. The housing market is subject to LOCAL 
supply and demand. Population growth, job growth, interest rates and 
housing supply all affect individual markets. One reason I have 
decried the bubble talk of the last couple years is because it is 
based on selected state or local markets that are then extrapolated 
to indicate a national condition. That is unreliable at best. Many 
self-proclaimed experts have looked at Las Vegas or parts of Florida 
as proof of impending disaster. Both those places are now in the 
process of adjusting to local conditions; neither has ever been 
indicative of national trends.

The term "bubble" is simply not appropriate. A bubble is pricked and 
it bursts immediately. It is absurd to assess the national real 
estate market as such. Local real estate markets continually adjust 
to local conditions in far less sudden movements.