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[Clansgian AT wmconnect.com]

> James, it occurs to me that my view of real estate cycles is similar 
> to your view of what others call global warming. The climate may in 
> fact be simply doing what it has always done, cycle. So, too, real 
> estate prices surge and wane cyclically. I don't see bubbles, I see 
> normal business cycles.


But, Gene, do you not see some aspects of the last five years to be unique, 
unseen before?  Intrest only loans, less than interest only loans, the 
percentage of houses bought on speculation and as second homes, houses bought 
with 
little or no down payment, so many HUGE houses being built.  I admit I might 
have 
had my head in the sand for decades and missed a lot.  I only borrowed money 
once to buy real estate and then parlayed that into better and better 
investment without borrowing any more money.  I appeared to me that real 
estate 
lending was cautious.  

My misgivings about the status and immediate future status of real estate 
comes from what seems to me to be some unique things that have gone on in the 
past five years.  I very much believe in regular economic cycles and that 
they 
are nothing to be much concerned with in the long run.  But based on some of 
my 
neighbors and friends, there have been what seems to be a lot of mighty 
unsound loans made with houses as collateral.

When I add together the tricky loans, the % of houses bought as speculation, 
the far-flung cavernous McMansions with the rising price of motor fuel and 
heating fuel,  it makes me wonder if we can expect past patterns to hold true.