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[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

> Don Bowen wrote:
>
> >One thing I read recently coupled rising interest rates, reduction of house
> >price increases, and stagnant incomes.  This implies that homeowners are
> >not so able to pull equity out of the homes.  This in turn leads to layoffs
> >in the mortgage and home construction fields.

I forgot to respond to Don's main point, the effect of fewer refinances. 
But note that Lisa's numbers indicate modest diminishment in mortgage aps. 
Lisa, do you have the numbers on refi's specifically, separated out of all 
mortgage aps?

John Foltz, the managing broker for Realty Executives in Phoenix, with whom 
I am associated until I formally pull the plug, gave us a report on a 
meeting he attended run by Alan Greenspan awhile back. What Greenspan 
wanted to know was what refi money was being spent on. Foltz's report was 
most interesting. What I took from it was that even the top dog at the Fed 
is not sure of what is going on with the economy; he is constantly 
gathering info on current conditions. What I have subsequently concluded is 
that consumer confidence and consumer spending are the keys to whether the 
economy is strong or weak. The nuts and bolts of the economy matter, but 
what we consumers do is the fuel of the economic machine.