[Homestead] Evelyn Garriss this winter forecast....
cayadopi at yahoo.com
Fri Oct 30 18:56:05 EDT 2009
Evelyn Garriss, The Browning Newsletter, predictions on the weather this winter.
Prepare for a COLD winter.
Appears that we are going to have weak El Nino conditions this winter - not good for the whole US.
A lot of volcanic activity all year in N. Pacific, Russia & AK -- has been blocking sunlight, lots of dust/sulfur in the air.
Artic air is really cold.
In weak El Nino only west US will get some of the warm air - cold air from artic will go all the way down to the gulf and to east coast all winter, unusually cold air.
West US will be warmer, but dry.
2007 artic ice expanded over the winter.
2008 artic ice expanded more over the winter.
Worldwide weak monsoon this year. Really bad in India, 25% below normal and Pakistan 40% below normal - food production way off 15-20% below normal - trouble in the tribal areas (food shortages) even though Prez says they have enough stored to hand out food. Worst monsoon in 60 years. They are broke and can't even afford seed for next year (assume she's talking about typical farmers in those countries.)
US crops got put in late, there was no heat spell to speed up recovery and now we are having an early fall, and a colder fall because of the volcanic activity.
She is hearing a lot of concern from her farmer (clients to her weather forecast newsletter) in corn, the crops are wet, crops are late, and when trying to store the crop wet, harvesting is very expensive. Storing wet corn very prone to disease. Bad conditions for harvest, and bad conditions for the winter wheat crop.
(Host: Longer term weather cycles - the world is hung up on global warming, but from what he's been reading, there actually has been a general cooling trend since 1998.)
Garriss: "Yes and it has been quite dramatic since 2007. 1998 was as warm as it got and it got a little bit cooler but stayed fairly stable, and then it plunged rather dramatically since 2007. Remember all the pictures of polar bears and the concerns that the ice caps were going to just melt away and the last we'd see of the polar bears as they paddled off into the artic waters looking for some ice to climb on? Well, what's been happening the ice cap has been growing back. And it's interesting when you see how it's being reported. In 2008, we saw a lot of ice growing back. The ice cap at the end of the summer melt was not as small as it had been the year before. So what were the headlines? They weren't the ice cap is growing back. The headlines were we have more thin ice than ever before. That was because it was one years' growth. So there was a lot of new ice, therefore, the headlines were worrying because of all of the thin
ice. Now it' grown back a second year. And I think a way to compare it, if you looked at the end of the summer melt in 2007 and the end of the summer melt this year the ice was 1.4 times as much territory as Texas. There was that much additional ice added on to the artic ice cap.
"It is growing back and it's growing back fairly rapidly. Part of the reason is that we're no longer seeing the global warming and then part of it is the very short term fact that we've had a lot of volcanic eruptions in the artic area and the sunlight isn't getting through that chemical gunk and debris in order to melt the ice. This summer has been really cold and the ice has been growing back.
"Also some people are quite concerned because the sun goes thru 11 year cycles of sun spots. And that is tied in with radiation so the same amount of radiation the sun produces peaks about every 11 years and it bottomed out around 2007 and they've been waiting for the cycle to start up again and the face of the sun has been blank. We've had the quietest sun and the least amount of radiation in almost 100 years."
(Host: You'd never know that by reading what's in the press, that isn't what the public is being told.)
Garriss: "Well there is something that is going on. You can have the globe as a whole cooler and certain areas grow warmer. Now in the Atlantic the flow, most people call it the Gulf Stream, but it is the whole flow of the Atlantic where the warm tropical water tends to flow north towards the N. Atlantic. And just like rivers have times where there is rapid flow and when there is very little flow. So these giant currents int he Atlantic have times when they flow very rapidly and times when they slow down. Well since 1995, the Atlantic has been flowing very rapidly, and the Atlantic waters have been getting warmer and warmer. Also cities create so much heat they create their own little heat islands. So where do most of the policy makers live? They are living along the east coast or in Europe in cities. So the rest of the globe can grow cold and they just happen to be living where it is actually getting warmer."
So the bottom line for THIS winter in North America, is expect a cold one, caused by lack of sunspots, and and increase in volcanic activity that started last year that has caused debris in the air blocking the sun, making the artic air really cold this year.
FYI in the deep south desert here the last 2 mornings it was a measy 24 degrees.... something I wasn't expecting until late December or January.
More information about the Homestead