[Homestead] Newsweek -- "A one point race" ?
bobford79 at yahoo.com
Thu Oct 23 19:42:15 EDT 2008
I'm with you Lynn. One thing I read said that in all polls McCain was leading with white men by over 20 points and with white women by 8 points. White people still have the plurality.
I live in a city with a lot of Mexican immigrants. At least here, Mexicans are very prejudiced against black people. I just don't see the majority of Mexicans voting for a black man , unless they feel there will be a big payoff.
Black people make up about 12 % of our population, they will vote almost 100% for Obama.
I just don't see people in my life experience (which is quite diverse and varied) voting for Obama in the numbers the polls show. But, when I see crowds like the other day in Missouri, it really almost seems like old time Billy Grham revivals, pulling in everyone to share the moment.
I don't have a clue :-) ............bobford
--- On Thu, 10/23/08, Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 at hotmail.com> wrote:
> From: Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 at hotmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] Newsweek -- "A one point race" ?
> To: homestead at lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Thursday, October 23, 2008, 5:29 PM
> I'm seriously starting to wonder about polls. Different
> sources seem to
> have a poll to prove whatever they want. Realclearpolitics
> has the
> average of 6 recent polls and shows Obama up by 10.7 points
> Pennsylvania. The lowest poll in their list has Obama ahead
> by 8 points.
> Lynn Wigglesworth
> bob ford wrote:
> > This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls
> some of you were mentioning. The jest of it, I believe, is
> take them all with a grain of salt.
> > But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this
> am , this could be setting up a big upset. PA is almost 70%
> democrat by registration. I thought it was over, maybe not.
> > Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing. I don't
> think anyone on the list is old enough to remmber that, but
> this outcome could be similar. But, with the economy, it
> should be a blow-out.
> > People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were
> more responsible for the mess than the dumb*ss repubs.
> Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully throw many of them
> in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford
> > "Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico
> Playbook and Mark Halperin's The Page--three of the main
> arbiters of Washington's conventional wisdom--are all
> linking to the latest national surveys from IBD
> ("close!") and AP-Gfk ("shock!"): they
> show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1 point
> (44-43), respectively.
> > "The presidential race [has] tightened after the
> final debate," writes the AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox
> posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL
> SHOWS VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media
> has any incentive to disagree.
> > Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain
> crushing Obama in the sub-25 demographic (IBD) and
> benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in evangelical
> turnout (AP).
> > Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points
> among young voters and McCain isn't particularly popular
> with the born-again crowd, reasonable people--that is, those
> of us who actually want to figure out who's winning and
> by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't
> the best polls on which to base our sense of the race.
> > But that raises the question: how should reasonable
> people be reading the polls? Here are three
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